Jameson Williams has been a consistent over performer in receptions at home, posting a 58.3% over rate (7-5-0) while averaging 3.67 receptions against a 3.17 line. The +0.5 differential and strong 11.4% ROI on overs signals legitimate value in Detroit's home environment.
Expert Analysis
Williams' home reception advantage stems from Detroit's offensive philosophy at Ford Field, where the Lions have consistently targeted their speedy receiver more frequently in the controlled environment. The 3.67 average against a 3.17 line represents meaningful value, particularly given the 11.4% ROI on overs compared to the brutal -20.4% return on unders. This isn't random variance - Williams benefits from Detroit's home game script tendencies, where they often establish rhythm early through shorter routes before unleashing the deep ball. The Lions' offensive coordinator has shown increased willingness to feature Williams in the slot at home, creating more reliable target opportunities beyond his traditional deep threat role. However, the recent single-game under streak and Williams' boom-bust nature as a deep threat creates some volatility. The key concern is game flow dependency - if Detroit builds large leads at home, they may reduce passing volume in favor of clock management. Still, Williams' target share has remained consistent enough at home to suggest the reception floor is higher than the betting market recognizes, making this a sustainable edge rather than a temporary anomaly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' consistent target volume at Ford Field creates a reliable reception floor that the market undervalues. The 11.4% ROI on home overs reflects genuine edge, particularly when Detroit faces competitive opponents requiring balanced offensive attack. Main risk is blowout scenarios reducing passing volume, but Williams' slot usage at home provides enough target security to justify the lean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receptions prop record home games?
Williams has gone over his receptions prop in 7 of 12 home games (58.3% rate) while staying under just 5 times. His home over record shows consistent target volume that exceeds betting market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receptions home games?
Lean over on Williams' home reception props. The 11.4% ROI on overs versus -20.4% on unders, combined with his 0.5 reception advantage over the typical line, creates legitimate betting value.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receptions home games?
Williams averages 3.67 receptions in home games compared to his typical 3.17 line, creating a meaningful +0.5 differential. This gap suggests the market consistently undervalues his home target volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception overs when Detroit faces competitive opponents at home requiring balanced offensive attack. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where late-game clock management could reduce passing volume significantly.