Jameson Williams delivers exceptional home receiving yard value with a 56.2% over rate (9-7-0) and +12.8 yard average differential above typical lines. The 7.4% ROI on overs across 16 home games creates a clear statistical edge despite the current three-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Williams transforms at Ford Field, where the controlled environment and crowd energy consistently elevate his explosive play style. The 51.0-yard home average significantly outpaces his typical 38.19 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home/road split. Detroit's aggressive offensive approach at home, combined with Williams' deep threat capability, creates natural over conditions. The Lions' home game script typically involves more passing volume as they often build leads, requiring opponents to throw more and opening counter-attacking opportunities. Williams benefits from defensive attention on Amon-Ra St. Brown, creating single coverage situations he exploits with his 4.3 speed. However, the current three-game under streak indicates potential market correction or recent defensive adjustments targeting Williams specifically. The sample size of 16 games provides solid statistical foundation, though his boom-or-bust nature means individual game variance remains high. Weather rarely impacts Ford Field's dome environment, eliminating a key variable that affects outdoor venues.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 12.8-yard positive differential and 56.2% hit rate create legitimate value despite the recent cold streak. Target games where Detroit faces high-scoring opponents or enters as home favorites, as these scripts maximize Williams' explosive potential. The primary risk remains his inconsistent target share and Detroit's run-heavy tendencies when building large leads.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 55.5 | 19.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 34.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 51.5 | 37.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 80.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 28.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 124.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 42.5 | 80.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 46.5 | 79.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 39.5 | 121.0 | +81.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 33.5 | 35.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 34.5 | 19.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 19.5 | 47.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 22.5 | 51.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 19.5 | 44.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-30 | OPP | 24.5 | 16.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Williams goes over his receiving yards prop 56.2% of the time in home games with a 9-7-0 record across 16 games. This translates to a solid 7.4% ROI on over bets at Ford Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Williams' home receiving yards props. The 12.8-yard positive differential and 56.2% hit rate provide clear statistical value, especially after three consecutive unders may have softened future lines.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receiving Yards home games?
Williams averages 51.0 receiving yards in home games, which runs 12.8 yards above his typical 38.19 betting line. This significant gap suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers in Detroit home games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving yards overs in home games against high-scoring opponents or when Detroit is favored. These game scripts maximize passing volume and create the explosive play opportunities that drive his home success.