Jameson Williams delivers exceptional away game value with an 8-6 over record (57.1%) and averages 41.71 receiving yards versus a 35.14 line. The +6.6 differential and +9.1% ROI create a clear statistical edge. This trend leans over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Williams' away game success stems from Detroit's aggressive road offensive approach and favorable game scripts. The Lions often find themselves in catch-up situations on the road, leading to increased passing volume that benefits Williams as the team's deep threat specialist. His 41.71 yard average significantly outpacing the 35.14 line suggests consistent market undervaluation of his road production. The current four-game over streak indicates momentum, though regression remains possible. Williams thrives in high-tempo environments where Detroit abandons conservative game plans, which occurs more frequently away from home. The +9.1% ROI demonstrates sustainable profitability over 14 games, a meaningful sample size. However, the -18.2% under ROI warns against contrarian betting. Key concerns include potential target competition from emerging receivers and Detroit's improved running game reducing passing attempts. Weather conditions and elite opposing secondaries pose the greatest threats to this trend's continuation. The longest over streak of four games matches current form, suggesting this pattern operates within historical parameters rather than an unsustainable hot streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 6.6-yard average advantage over his away lines creates legitimate value, supported by Detroit's road offensive tendencies and his role as the primary downfield target. The four-game streak aligns with historical patterns rather than indicating overheating. Target overs when Detroit faces high-scoring opponents or plays in domes, but avoid in severe weather or against elite pass defenses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 77.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 143.0 | +95.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 64.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 37.5 | 53.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 49.5 | -4.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 45.5 | 76.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 51.5 | 9.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 28.5 | 25.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 32.5 | 69.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 43.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 11.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 15.5 | 18.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Williams posts an 8-6 over record (57.1%) on receiving yards props in away games across 14 contests. He averages 41.71 yards against a 35.14 average line, creating a +6.6 differential that translates to +9.1% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receiving Yards away games?
Lean over on Williams' away receiving yards props. His consistent 6.6-yard advantage over market lines, combined with Detroit's road offensive tendencies and his deep threat role, creates sustainable value despite the modest 57.1% hit rate.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receiving Yards away games?
Williams averages 41.71 receiving yards in away games, significantly outpacing his average line of 35.14 yards. This +6.6 differential represents an 18.8% edge over market expectations and drives the positive ROI for over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving overs when Detroit plays high-scoring road opponents or in dome environments. Avoid severe weather games or matchups against elite pass defenses like Denver or Pittsburgh that can neutralize his deep speed advantage.