Jameson Williams has delivered exceptional over value in receiving yards props, hitting overs at a 56.7% clip (17-13-0) while averaging 46.67 yards against a 36.77 line average. The +9.9 yard differential and +8.2% ROI on overs signals consistent line value, making Williams a strong over target.
Expert Analysis
Williams' receiving yards props reveal a market inefficiency that sophisticated bettors can exploit. The Lions' explosive passing offense creates consistent opportunities for Williams to exceed modest expectations, with his 46.67-yard average significantly outpacing the typical 36.77 line. This isn't just variance—it reflects Detroit's commitment to pushing the ball downfield and Williams' role as their premier deep threat. The +8.2% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profitability, while the -17.3% under ROI shows how consistently the market undervalues his production. Williams benefits from Detroit's high-octane offense that ranks among the league's most pass-heavy, creating volume and big-play opportunities. The current two-game under streak actually presents value, as his longer streaks have been limited to just three games in either direction. Market makers appear slow to adjust to Williams' expanded role and improved chemistry with Jared Goff. The key risk lies in potential game script variations, but Detroit's aggressive offensive philosophy typically ensures consistent passing volume regardless of score. Williams' ability to impact games with limited targets makes him less dependent on volume than traditional slot receivers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams consistently outperforms receiving yards expectations, averaging nearly 10 yards above typical lines with a profitable 56.7% over rate. The market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Detroit's explosive offense. Target overs when lines sit below 40 yards, especially in projected high-scoring games. Main risk is potential reduced snaps if Detroit builds large leads early, but their aggressive offensive philosophy typically maintains passing volume throughout games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 55.5 | 19.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 34.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 77.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 143.0 | +95.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 51.5 | 37.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 80.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 28.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 64.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 124.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 37.5 | 53.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 49.5 | -4.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 45.5 | 76.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 42.5 | 80.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 51.5 | 9.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 46.5 | 79.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Williams has hit receiving yards overs in 17 of 30 games (56.7%) while going under 13 times. His average of 46.67 yards consistently beats the typical 36.77 line, creating a profitable +9.9 yard differential for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Williams' receiving yards props. His 56.7% over rate and +8.2% ROI demonstrate consistent market value. Target lines below 40 yards in high-scoring game environments where Detroit's passing offense can operate freely.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receiving Yards all games?
Williams averages 46.67 receiving yards per game, nearly 10 yards above the typical 36.77 line average. This significant differential reflects the market's failure to properly price his role in Detroit's explosive passing offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving yards overs when lines are set below 40 yards, especially in projected shootouts or games where Detroit may trail. His current two-game under streak creates additional value given his historical consistency.