James Cook's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while generating +14.6% ROI on the under side. The Bills running back has consistently fallen short of inflated lines, averaging 15.2 yards against a 14.5 average line. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about market inefficiency in James Cook's receiving props. Despite averaging 15.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games, Cook has failed to cover the over in 60% of those contests, suggesting oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his pass-catching role. The +14.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, yet the market hasn't fully corrected. Cook's role in Buffalo's offense remains primarily as a ground-and-pound runner, with his receiving work often game-script dependent. When the Bills build leads, they lean heavily on Cook's rushing ability rather than involving him in the passing game. The current streak of two consecutive overs might tempt bettors toward continuing that momentum, but it follows a four-game under streak that better represents Cook's true receiving usage. The modest 0.7-yard differential between his average and typical lines suggests books are pricing him fairly on paper, but the consistent under performance indicates his ceiling in the passing game is lower than markets anticipate. This trend appears sustainable given Buffalo's offensive philosophy and Cook's defined role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Cook's 40% over rate and strong under ROI reflect a running back whose receiving role is consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. The trend appears sustainable given Buffalo's run-heavy approach and Cook's primary role as a ground-game weapon. Target unders when lines sit at 15+ yards, particularly in games where Buffalo projects as favorites and likely to control tempo through Cook's rushing ability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 49.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 26.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 28.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 13.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 7.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Cook's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Cook has gone 4-6 over/under on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 15.2 receiving yards against lines averaging 14.5 yards, showing consistent under performance despite seemingly beatable numbers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Cook Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Cook's receiving yards. The 60% under rate combined with +14.6% ROI for under bettors shows clear market inefficiency. His role as primarily a rushing weapon makes receiving props consistently overvalued by oddsmakers.
What's James Cook's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Cook averages 15.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to average lines of 14.5 yards. Despite the modest +0.7 differential favoring his average, he's failed to cover 60% of the time, indicating his ceiling is lower than markets expect.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cook receiving unders when lines are set at 15+ yards and Buffalo is favored. The Bills' run-heavy game script when leading limits Cook's pass-catching opportunities, making higher lines particularly vulnerable to under results.