James Conner has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 60% of his last 10 games, generating a solid +14.6% ROI for over bettors. His 69.1 yard average sits 1.2 yards above typical lines, creating a measurable edge. This represents a lean over opportunity with proper line shopping.
Expert Analysis
Conner's 60% over rate reflects a running back finding his rhythm in Arizona's evolving offensive system. The +1.2 yard differential between his actual production (69.1) and market expectations (67.9) suggests books are slightly undervaluing his recent form. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates genuine profitability, not just variance. What makes this trend compelling is its sustainability - Conner's role as the clear lead back provides volume consistency, while his ability to break longer runs creates upside potential. The Cardinals' recent offensive adjustments have favored ground game usage, particularly in neutral game scripts. However, the -23.6% under ROI reveals the double-edged nature of this prop - when Conner fails to hit, he tends to fall well short. The current one-game under streak after a four-game over run suggests natural regression, but the underlying usage patterns remain favorable. Arizona's improved offensive line play has created cleaner running lanes, while Conner's veteran savvy helps him maximize opportunities. The key concern is game script dependency - negative game flow can quickly derail rushing production, and Conner's age makes him more susceptible to weekly variance than younger backs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge, especially when finding lines at 67 yards or lower. Conner's role security and Arizona's commitment to establishing the run provide a foundation for continued success. The main risk remains game script - avoid in projected blowout losses where the Cardinals will abandon the ground game early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 57.5 | 4.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 117.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 74.5 | 110.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 62.5 | 90.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 47.5 | 68.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 68.5 | 8.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 76.5 | 33.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 107.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 71.5 | 53.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 62.5 | 101.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Conner's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
James Conner has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), generating a +14.6% ROI for over bettors while producing a -23.6% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Conner Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Conner's rushing yards props when lines are 67 yards or lower. His 69.1 yard average and 60% over rate create a measurable edge, particularly in neutral game scripts.
What's James Conner's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Conner has averaged 69.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 1.2 yards above the typical market line of 67.9 yards, creating a small but consistent edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conner rushing yards overs in neutral game scripts when Arizona projects to stay competitive. Avoid in projected blowout losses where negative game flow will limit rushing attempts and opportunities.