Jalen Hurts has hit the over on his rushing yards prop 60% of the time over his last 10 games, averaging 44.6 yards against a 38.0 line for a +6.6 differential. The over has generated a strong +14.6% ROI, making this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Hurts continues to be one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks in the NFL, and his recent 10-game sample demonstrates why betting his rushing yards overs has been profitable. The 6.6-yard differential between his average (44.6) and the typical line (38.0) represents a significant edge that sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted for. This isn't just about raw rushing ability—Hurts benefits from Philadelphia's designed quarterback runs, red zone packages, and his natural scrambling instincts when pocket protection breaks down. The 60% over rate with a +14.6% ROI indicates this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern driven by his dual-threat skill set. The Eagles' offensive scheme consistently creates rushing opportunities for Hurts through RPOs and designed keepers, particularly in short-yardage and goal-line situations. While the sample size is respectable, the consistency of his usage and the team's commitment to utilizing his legs suggests this trend has staying power. The biggest risk comes from potential game script issues if Philadelphia builds large leads, but even in blowouts, Hurts often accumulates rushing yards through designed plays early in games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hurts's 6.6-yard average differential above the line, combined with the 60% over rate and positive ROI, creates a favorable betting environment. The Eagles' offensive system consistently generates rushing opportunities for their quarterback, making overs the preferred play when the line sits around 38 yards. Primary risk involves negative game scripts, but his early-game usage typically provides enough volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 36.5 | 72.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 39.5 | 70.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 45.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 37.5 | 29.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 39.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 39.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jalen Hurts props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jalen Hurts has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) with a 6-4-0 overall record. The over bets have generated a +14.6% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Jalen Hurts rushing yards. He's averaging 44.6 yards against a 38.0 line (+6.6 differential) with 60% overs hitting. The Eagles' designed rushing plays create consistent opportunities above the betting line.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Jalen Hurts is averaging 44.6 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to the typical 38.0 line, creating a +6.6 yard differential. This 17.4% cushion above the betting number has driven profitable over results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts rushing overs when Philadelphia faces competitive games where they'll utilize their full offensive playbook. Avoid when the Eagles are heavy favorites, as potential blowouts could limit his designed rushing opportunities in garbage time.