Jalen Hurts has hit the over on his rushing yards prop just 44.4% of the time in home games, going 8-10 over his last 18 contests at Lincoln Financial Field. Despite averaging 43.89 rushing yards against a 38.89 line average, the under has delivered superior ROI at +6.1% versus -15.2% for overs. This creates a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between Jalen Hurts's rushing production and market expectations at home. While Hurts averages 5.0 yards above his typical line, this surplus hasn't translated to consistent over success, suggesting oddsmakers have overcorrected for his dual-threat ability in familiar surroundings. The -15.2% ROI on overs indicates the market systematically overvalues his rushing upside at Lincoln Financial Field. Several factors contribute to this trend. Home games often feature different game scripts, with Philadelphia more likely to build leads that reduce Hurts's scrambling opportunities in the second half. The Eagles' offensive line performs better at home, creating cleaner pockets that keep Hurts from extending plays with his legs. Additionally, home crowds can influence referee tendencies, potentially leading to quicker whistles on borderline scrambles. The 4-game under streak followed by just a 2-game over streak maximum suggests this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Hurts's rushing production appears more volatile at home, with the under hitting in crucial spots when the market expects his legs to be a primary weapon. The +6.1% under ROI demonstrates consistent value, particularly when considering that Hurts still produces above his line average yet fails to cover at the expected rate.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.1% under ROI combined with just 44.4% over success creates legitimate value despite Hurts averaging above his line. Home game scripts and improved pocket protection limit his scrambling opportunities more than the market anticipates. Target unders when the line exceeds 40 yards, as Hurts has been particularly vulnerable to falling short on higher expectations at Lincoln Financial Field.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 36.5 | 72.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 39.5 | 70.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 45.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 39.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 39.5 | 67.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 40.5 | 33.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 39.5 | 85.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 38.5 | 33.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 41.5 | 25.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 40.5 | 34.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 41.5 | 20.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 37.5 | 65.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Jalen Hurts has gone 8-10 on rushing yards overs in home games, hitting just 44.4% over 18 contests. The under has provided +6.1% ROI compared to -15.2% for overs, making it the superior long-term play at Lincoln Financial Field despite his above-average production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards home games?
Bet the under on Jalen Hurts rushing yards in home games. The 44.4% over rate and +6.1% under ROI create clear value, especially when the line exceeds 40 yards. Home game scripts and better pocket protection limit his scrambling opportunities more than oddsmakers account for.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Rushing Yards home games?
Jalen Hurts averages 43.89 rushing yards in home games against a typical line of 38.89 yards, creating a +5.0 differential. However, this production surplus hasn't translated to over success, with unders still hitting 55.6% of the time despite his above-line average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Hurts rushing yards unders in home games when the line exceeds 40 yards and Philadelphia is favored by more than a field goal. These conditions typically create game scripts that reduce late-game scrambling opportunities while the market overvalues his dual-threat upside.