Jalen Hurts has consistently fallen short of his rushing yards props in conference games, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time (9-15 record) while averaging 38.04 yards against a 38.79 line. The under presents significant value with +19.3% ROI versus -28.4% for overs, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture of systematic underperformance by Jalen Hurts in conference matchups. His 9-15 over/under record represents a meaningful sample size across 24 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate trend. The -0.8 yard differential between his average (38.04) and typical line (38.79) might seem minimal, but it's the consistency that matters for bettors. Conference games often feature more familiar defensive schemes and heightened game-planning focus, which could explain why Hurts struggles to exceed expectations against NFC East rivals and playoff-caliber opponents. The ROI split is particularly telling - under bettors have generated +19.3% returns while over backers have lost 28.4% of their investment. This suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Hurts' conference game tendencies. His current streak of one under continues a pattern where he's hit longer under streaks (four games) than over streaks (three games). The lack of available splits data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the core trend remains robust enough to inform betting decisions. Conference games typically involve more conservative game scripts and tighter defensive execution, factors that naturally suppress rushing production for quarterbacks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 37.5% over rate and +19.3% under ROI create a favorable betting environment, particularly when Hurts faces conference opponents who've studied his rushing tendencies extensively. Target unders when the line sits near his 38.79 average, as he's consistently fallen short in these spots. The main risk is a blowout scenario where Hurts pads stats in garbage time, but conference games rarely turn into routs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 39.5 | 70.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 39.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 39.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 56.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 40.5 | 20.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 43.5 | 25.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 39.5 | 85.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 38.5 | 33.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 40.5 | 5.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 41.5 | 25.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jalen Hurts props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Jalen Hurts has gone over his rushing yards prop just 9 times in 24 conference games (37.5% rate) while staying under 15 times. This 9-15 record represents consistent underperformance against NFC East rivals and conference playoff opponents.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the under on Jalen Hurts rushing yards in conference games. The 37.5% over rate and +19.3% under ROI create clear value, especially when lines sit near his 38.79 average where he consistently falls short.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Jalen Hurts averages 38.04 rushing yards in conference games compared to typical prop lines of 38.79 yards. This -0.8 yard differential might seem small, but it's consistent enough to create profitable under betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Hurts rushing yards unders specifically in conference games when the line is set near his historical average of 38.79 yards. Avoid in potential blowout spots where garbage time could inflate his numbers.