Jalen Hurts has been a passing yards under goldmine, hitting just 30.0% of overs across his last 10 games with an average of 165.3 yards against lines averaging 207.9. This -42.6 yard differential represents a massive market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit.
Expert Analysis
The market continues to overvalue Hurts as a pocket passer while ignoring Philadelphia's fundamental offensive identity. Averaging 165.3 passing yards against lines of 207.9 isn't random variance—it's systematic underutilization of Hurts's arm in favor of his legs and the Eagles' ground game. The 33.6% ROI on unders reflects a market that hasn't adjusted to how the Eagles actually deploy their dual-threat quarterback. Hurts's rushing ability creates shorter fields and fewer passing opportunities, while Philadelphia's commitment to establishing the run limits his volume. The recent 2-game over streak might tempt some to fade the trend, but it follows a dominant 4-game under run that better represents the Eagles' offensive philosophy. Books are pricing Hurts like a traditional pocket passer when he's operating in a run-first system that prioritizes his mobility over his arm. This disconnect between perception and reality creates consistent value on the under, particularly when the market sets inflated lines expecting 200+ yard performances that rarely materialize in Philadelphia's current offensive structure.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 42.6-yard average differential isn't sustainable market inefficiency—it's the market fundamentally misunderstanding how Philadelphia uses Hurts. Target unders when lines exceed 200 yards, as the Eagles' run-heavy approach and Hurts's rushing production naturally cap his passing volume. The main risk is a potential offensive philosophy shift, but recent trends suggest this ground-based identity remains entrenched.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 211.5 | 221.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 190.5 | 246.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 195.5 | 128.0 | -67.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 212.5 | 131.0 | -81.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 199.5 | 11.0 | -188.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 195.5 | 290.0 | +94.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 199.5 | 108.0 | -91.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 230.5 | 118.0 | -112.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 220.5 | 179.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 223.5 | 221.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Hurts has gone 3-7-0 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of his overs. He's averaging 165.3 yards against lines averaging 207.9, creating a massive -42.6 yard differential that represents consistent market mispricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Hurts's passing yards props. The 33.6% ROI on unders with a -42.6 yard average differential shows the market consistently overvalues his passing volume in Philadelphia's run-heavy offensive system.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Hurts is averaging 165.3 passing yards over his last 10 games against lines averaging 207.9 yards. This -42.6 yard differential represents the market's failure to properly price his role in Philadelphia's ground-based offensive philosophy.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when lines exceed 200 yards, as these represent the biggest market disconnects with Philadelphia's offensive reality. The Eagles' commitment to the ground game and Hurts's dual-threat usage consistently limits his passing volume opportunities.