Jalen Hurts shows marginal home passing value with a 10-9-0 over record (52.6%) across 19 games, averaging 224.42 yards against a 225.82 line. The minimal 1.4-yard shortfall and slight positive ROI on overs suggests neutral-to-slight over lean in home environments.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Hurts's home passing numbers reveal a quarterback operating in a system that consistently generates volume near market expectations. The 224.42-yard average against a 225.82 line represents remarkable accuracy in oddsmaker projections, with Hurts falling just 1.4 yards short per game. This tight differential suggests the Eagles' home offensive approach remains consistent regardless of opponent or game script. The 52.6% over rate indicates Hurts slightly exceeds expectations more often than not, while the positive 0.5% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable value despite the modest edge. Philadelphia's home field advantage appears to manifest more in rushing efficiency and red zone conversion than pure passing volume, explaining why Hurts doesn't dramatically exceed his lines at Lincoln Financial Field. The balanced 10-9 record suggests this trend lacks the volatility that creates obvious betting edges, but the consistent near-line performance indicates a stable floor. Without significant changes to offensive philosophy or personnel, Hurts should continue producing passing totals that hover around market projections in home games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 52.6% over rate and positive ROI create a marginal edge, but the 1.4-yard average shortfall limits conviction. Target overs when facing weaker pass defenses or in potential shootout scenarios where game script favors volume. The main risk is Philadelphia's tendency to lean heavily on the ground game when protecting leads at home.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 211.5 | 221.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 190.5 | 246.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 195.5 | 128.0 | -67.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 212.5 | 131.0 | -81.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 195.5 | 290.0 | +94.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 199.5 | 108.0 | -91.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 223.5 | 221.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 217.5 | 230.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 225.5 | 264.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 230.5 | 183.0 | -47.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 241.5 | 278.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 243.5 | 167.0 | -76.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 233.5 | 301.0 | +67.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 239.5 | 298.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 249.5 | 200.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing Yards prop record home games?
Jalen Hurts has gone over his passing yards prop in 10 of 19 home games (52.6%), with 9 unders and no pushes. His home passing record shows slight over tendencies with positive ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing Yards home games?
Lean over on Jalen Hurts passing yards at home, but with low confidence. The 52.6% over rate and positive ROI provide a marginal edge, though the 1.4-yard average shortfall limits conviction in this spot.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing Yards home games?
Jalen Hurts averages 224.42 passing yards in home games compared to an average line of 225.82 yards. He falls 1.4 yards short per game, indicating oddsmakers price his home props with remarkable accuracy.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Hurts passing overs at home when facing weak pass defenses or in projected high-scoring games. Avoid when Philadelphia is heavily favored, as they often shift to ground control when protecting leads.