Jalen Hurts shows a pronounced under bias in conference games, hitting the over just 40.0% of the time across 25 games with a brutal -16.5 yard average differential. The under delivers a solid 14.6% ROI while overs hemorrhage money at -23.6%. This is a clear under lean.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Hurts struggling to meet passing expectations against conference opponents who know him best. That -16.5 yard differential isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in Philadelphia's ground-heavy identity and NFC East familiarity. Conference games feature more conservative game scripts as divisional rivals prioritize limiting explosive plays over Hurts's dual-threat ability. The Eagles' commitment to their rushing attack becomes even more pronounced against familiar foes who've studied their tendencies extensively. Hurts averages just 209.76 passing yards in these spots, well below the typical 226.26 lines oddsmakers set. The persistence of this trend across 25 games suggests structural factors rather than temporary struggles. Philadelphia's offensive philosophy emphasizes controlling games through their elite rushing attack, leaving fewer opportunities for Hurts to accumulate significant passing volume. Conference opponents also tend to play tighter coverage schemes designed specifically to contain Hurts's mobility, forcing shorter completions and limiting his downfield passing opportunities. The longest under streak of nine games demonstrates how consistently this pattern manifests, while even the longest over streak maxed at just four games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with that significant -16.5 yard differential creates legitimate value against conference opponents. Target spots where Philadelphia faces division rivals or conference teams with strong pass defenses that can force more conservative game plans. The main risk is a potential shootout scenario or garbage time volume, but the Eagles' ground-first philosophy makes this less likely in conference play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 190.5 | 246.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 195.5 | 128.0 | -67.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 212.5 | 131.0 | -81.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 199.5 | 11.0 | -188.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 199.5 | 108.0 | -91.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 220.5 | 179.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 223.5 | 221.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 217.5 | 202.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 215.5 | 114.0 | -101.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 200.5 | 158.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 222.5 | 311.0 | +88.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 230.5 | 183.0 | -47.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 241.5 | 278.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 219.5 | 250.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 243.5 | 167.0 | -76.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing Yards prop record conference games?
Jalen Hurts has gone under his passing yards prop in 15 of 25 conference games (60% under rate) with a 10-15 over/under record. He averages 209.76 yards against lines typically set around 226.26.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing Yards conference games?
Bet under on Hurts's passing yards in conference games. The numbers show a clear pattern with 60% unders, positive ROI, and a -16.5 yard differential that creates consistent value on the under.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing Yards conference games?
Jalen Hurts averages 209.76 passing yards in conference games, which is 16.5 yards below the typical line of 226.26. This significant gap represents the core value in betting his unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target conference games, especially division matchups where Philadelphia's run-heavy approach becomes more pronounced. Avoid potential shootout spots, but the Eagles' ground-first philosophy makes these scenarios less common against familiar opponents.