Jalen Hurts has dramatically underperformed passing touchdown expectations, hitting the over in just 40% of his last 10 games with a -0.4 differential against the typical 1.5 line. The under has generated a profitable 14.6% ROI while overs have been a disaster at -23.6%. This screams systematic undervaluation by the betting market.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a quarterback whose passing touchdown production has been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. Hurts's 1.1 average against a standard 1.5 line represents a significant 27% shortfall that extends beyond normal variance. This trend likely stems from the Eagles' evolved offensive identity, where Hurts increasingly functions as a game manager while the team leans heavily on their ground attack and Hurts's own rushing ability near the goal line. The quarterback's dual-threat nature actually works against his passing touchdown totals, as Philadelphia frequently opts for designed runs or RPOs that result in Hurts keeping the ball himself in scoring situations. Additionally, the Eagles' improved defense and special teams have created more favorable field position, leading to shorter drives that favor rushing touchdowns over extended passing sequences. The 4-6 over record with three separate losing streaks suggests this isn't random regression but a fundamental shift in how Philadelphia operates offensively. Oddsmakers appear slow to adjust, creating persistent value on the under that sharp bettors have exploited for a healthy profit margin.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Hurts's consistent underperformance creates legitimate value, though the sample size demands caution. Target games where Philadelphia faces weaker run defenses or holds significant leads, as both scenarios increase the likelihood of conservative game scripts that limit passing touchdown opportunities. The primary risk is positive regression, but the underlying offensive philosophy suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Jalen Hurts props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Jalen Hurts has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 6 of his last 10 games (40% over rate). He's averaging 1.1 passing TDs per game against a typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Hurts's passing touchdowns. The consistent 14.6% ROI on unders combined with his systematic underperformance against the line creates legitimate value. His dual-threat ability actually hurts his passing TD totals by stealing red zone opportunities.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Hurts averages 1.1 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, falling 0.4 touchdowns short of the standard 1.5 line. This 27% shortfall represents significant underperformance that extends well beyond normal statistical variance for a starting quarterback.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts passing touchdown unders when Philadelphia faces weak run defenses or in games where they're heavily favored. Both scenarios encourage conservative, run-heavy game scripts that limit his passing touchdown opportunities while maximizing his rushing attempts near the goal line.