Jalen Hurts has been a reliable over play on passing touchdowns at home, hitting 63.2% of the time across 19 games with a strong +20.6% ROI. His 1.63 average consistently beats the standard 1.5 line by 0.13 touchdowns per game, creating sustainable value for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
The Lincoln Financial Field advantage for Hurts' passing touchdown production stems from Philadelphia's offensive identity at home. The Eagles have consistently leaned more heavily into their passing attack in familiar surroundings, where Hurts operates with enhanced comfort and crowd energy. His 1.63 home average against the typical 1.5 line represents meaningful edge, not random variance. The 63.2% hit rate over 19 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the +20.6% ROI demonstrates this isn't just volume - it's profitable volume. What makes this trend particularly compelling is Hurts' dual-threat nature actually amplifying his passing touchdown opportunities at home. When defenses respect his rushing ability in the red zone, it opens up more favorable passing windows. The Eagles' home offensive coordinator tendencies also favor designed passing plays near the goal line, contrasting with their more ground-heavy road approach. However, the -29.7% under ROI suggests books haven't fully adjusted, creating ongoing line value. The main regression risk lies in Philadelphia's evolving offensive philosophy, but their commitment to Hurts as a franchise quarterback suggests this home passing emphasis will persist.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 63.2% hit rate and +20.6% ROI create clear mathematical edge, while Hurts' 1.63 home average consistently beating the 1.5 line shows sustainable value. Target games where Philadelphia faces weaker pass defenses or expects competitive scoring environments. Main risk is the Eagles reverting to more ground-heavy approaches, but their home offensive tendencies strongly favor continued passing touchdown production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Jalen Hurts has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 12 of 19 home games (63.2%) with a +20.6% ROI. His home record shows consistent value, averaging 1.63 passing touchdowns against the typical 1.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing TDs home games?
Lean over on Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns at home. The 63.2% hit rate and +20.6% ROI create mathematical edge, while his 1.63 average consistently beats the standard 1.5 line by meaningful margin.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing TDs home games?
Jalen Hurts averages 1.63 passing touchdowns in home games, which beats the standard 1.5 line by 0.13 touchdowns per game. This consistent differential over 19 games demonstrates sustainable value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts passing touchdown overs when Philadelphia faces weaker pass defenses at home or in expected high-scoring games. His comfort at Lincoln Financial Field and the Eagles' home offensive tendencies create optimal conditions.