Jalen Hurts passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity with a dismal 40.0% over rate across 35 games. His 1.31 average sits 0.2 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line, generating a robust +14.6% ROI on unders. This represents a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The Eagles' offensive identity fundamentally explains why Hurts consistently falls short of passing touchdown expectations. Philadelphia's commitment to ground-heavy red zone execution limits Hurts' aerial scoring opportunities, as the team frequently opts for rushing touchdowns over passing plays near the goal line. His dual-threat capability actually works against passing touchdown props since Hurts often vultures his own passing scores with quarterback sneaks and designed runs. The 1.31 average reflects this reality—Hurts typically throws one touchdown per game with occasional multi-touchdown performances that barely offset the frequent single-score outings. Oddsmakers appear to overvalue his big-game potential while underweighting the Eagles' systematic preference for ground-based scoring. The -0.2 differential versus the standard 1.5 line creates consistent value, particularly when considering that 60% of his games have stayed under this threshold. This isn't a temporary trend but rather a structural mismatch between market perception and offensive philosophy. The Eagles' elite rushing attack and Hurts' own mobility create a perfect storm for passing touchdown unders, making this one of the more reliable props in the quarterback market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI indicate systematic market inefficiency, but the lack of situational data limits conviction. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5, as Hurts' 1.31 average creates consistent value. The primary risk is variance—his ceiling games can quickly shift short-term momentum, but the underlying offensive structure supports continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Jalen Hurts has gone over his passing touchdowns prop just 14 times in 35 games (40.0% rate) with a 14-21-0 record. His props have generated a -23.6% ROI on overs but a profitable +14.6% return on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns props. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI indicate clear market inefficiency. His 1.31 average consistently falls short of the typical 1.5 line, creating systematic value on unders.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing TDs all games?
Jalen Hurts averages 1.31 passing touchdowns per game across 35 contests, sitting 0.2 touchdowns below the standard 1.5 line. This differential creates consistent value for under bettors in the passing touchdown market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts passing touchdown unders when the line is set at 1.5 touchdowns. His offensive system and dual-threat ability create structural advantages for under bets, particularly in games where ground game dominance is expected.