Isiah Pacheco's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. The Chiefs running back is averaging 36.2 yards against a 49.2 line, creating a massive 13.0-yard negative differential. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Pacheco's rushing struggles reflect Kansas City's evolved offensive identity as a pass-first championship team. The Chiefs have increasingly relied on Patrick Mahomes and their receiving corps in crucial situations, relegating Pacheco to a complementary role rather than the featured back many expect. His 36.2-yard average against inflated 49.2 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't adjusted to this reality. The current six-game under streak isn't random variance—it's systematic underutilization in an offense that prioritizes efficiency over ground control. Game scripts often see Kansas City playing with leads or in shootouts where passing takes precedence. Pacheco's workload has become matchup-dependent, with the team showing no hesitation to abandon the run when trailing or facing stout defensive fronts. The 13.0-yard differential between his average and typical lines represents a significant market inefficiency. While regression toward his career norms remains possible, the Chiefs' playoff-tested formula of aerial dominance suggests this trend has staying power. The team's championship pedigree comes from adapting to what works, not forcing outdated rushing attack philosophies.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pacheco's systematic underperformance against inflated lines reflects Kansas City's strategic shift away from ground-heavy offense. The 13.0-yard negative differential and 52.7% under ROI create compelling value, especially when the Chiefs face quality defenses or potential shootout scenarios. Primary risk is a blowout victory where garbage-time carries inflate his total, but the overall trend remains strong given the team's pass-first identity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 21.5 | 7.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 41.5 | 18.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 42.5 | 18.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 52.5 | 26.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 60.5 | 32.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 48.5 | 55.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 90.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 45.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 67.5 | 59.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Isiah Pacheco's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Pacheco has gone 2-8-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's averaging 36.2 yards against typical lines of 49.2, creating a significant 13.0-yard negative differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Pacheco's rushing yards. His 2-8-0 record and 52.7% under ROI over the last 10 games show clear value. The Chiefs' pass-first offense and his 13.0-yard deficit against lines make unders the smart play.
What's Isiah Pacheco's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Pacheco is averaging 36.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games, falling 13.0 yards short of his typical 49.2 line. This massive differential shows oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his reduced role in Kansas City's evolved offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pacheco rushing unders when Kansas City faces strong defenses or potential shootouts where passing takes priority. His six-game under streak shows the trend is strongest when game scripts favor the Chiefs' aerial attack over ground control.