Isiah Pacheco's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.4% of overs across 27 games with a devastating -15.2% ROI on the over. Currently riding a six-game under streak, the market consistently overvalues his rushing production by setting lines above his 57.44-yard average.
Expert Analysis
The Pacheco rushing yards market reveals a persistent inefficiency that savvy bettors can exploit. His 12-15-0 over/under record tells only part of the story — the -15.2% ROI on overs indicates the market systematically overprices his rushing production. At 57.44 yards per game against a 56.02 average line, Pacheco barely exceeds expectations despite the Chiefs' offensive reputation. The current six-game under streak isn't just variance; it reflects Kansas City's evolution into a more pass-heavy attack as Patrick Mahomes has matured. Pacheco's role has become increasingly game-script dependent, with the Chiefs often abandoning the ground game when trailing or in high-scoring affairs. The market hasn't adjusted to this reality, continuing to set lines based on his early-career volume rather than current usage patterns. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this trend — even when Pacheco does hit overs, they're often narrow victories that don't overcome the juice. The Chiefs' championship aspirations mean they'll prioritize what works best, and increasingly that's been the passing game with Pacheco serving as a complementary piece rather than a featured back.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The data strongly favors under betting on Pacheco's rushing yards, supported by poor over ROI and a current six-game under streak. Target unders when Kansas City faces quality defenses or in games with high totals where game script could limit rushing attempts. The primary risk is a return to heavy ground-game usage if the Chiefs face weather issues or seek to control clock in playoff scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 21.5 | 7.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 29.5 | 12.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 41.5 | 18.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 42.5 | 18.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 52.5 | 26.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 60.5 | 32.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 48.5 | 55.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 90.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 45.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 67.5 | 59.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 63.5 | 68.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 63.5 | 97.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 89.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 62.5 | 130.0 | +67.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 63.5 | 26.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Isiah Pacheco's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Pacheco's rushing yards props show a 12-15-0 record across 27 games, hitting the over just 44.4% of the time. He's currently on a six-game under streak, his longest of the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Pacheco's rushing yards props. The data shows consistent under value with a -15.2% ROI on overs and only 44.4% over rate across 27 games, making unders the clear profitable side.
What's Isiah Pacheco's average Rushing Yards all games?
Pacheco averages 57.44 rushing yards per game against an average line of 56.02 yards. This minimal 1.4-yard edge over the line doesn't overcome the betting juice, making unders profitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pacheco rushing yards unders in high-total games or against strong defenses when Kansas City will likely lean on their passing attack. Avoid in weather games or when the Chiefs need clock control.