Isiah Pacheco's reception props have been consistently undervalued, hitting under in 60% of his last 10 games with a solid +14.6% ROI. Despite averaging just 2.4 receptions against a 2.2 line, the under trend shows clear profitability. Lean under on Pacheco reception props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Isiah Pacheco's limited role in Kansas City's passing attack. While his 2.4 reception average barely exceeds the typical 2.2 line, the 40% over rate reveals consistent market mispricing. Pacheco's value comes primarily as a power runner, not a pass-catcher, which explains why he's failed to hit reception overs in 6 of 10 games. The Chiefs' offensive philosophy under Andy Reid often features Travis Kelce and their wide receivers as primary targets, leaving Pacheco with check-downs and screen passes rather than designed receiving plays. His longest under streak of 4 games demonstrates how quickly these props can turn cold when game scripts favor the ground attack or when Kansas City builds early leads. The +14.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has identified this edge, while recreational bettors likely overvalue his overall offensive importance. Pacheco's reception totals tend to correlate with game flow—he sees fewer targets when the Chiefs control games on the ground, which happens frequently given their offensive line strength and his between-the-tackles running style.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pacheco's 60% under rate and positive ROI on the under side reflects his limited pass-catching role in Kansas City's offense. Target unders when the Chiefs are favored by more than a touchdown or facing weaker run defenses that could lead to ground-control game scripts. Main risk is garbage-time check-downs in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Isiah Pacheco's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Isiah Pacheco has gone under his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 4-6-0 over/under record. This 40% over rate demonstrates consistent struggles to reach his reception totals, making unders the profitable side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Isiah Pacheco Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Isiah Pacheco receptions props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, especially when Kansas City is favored and likely to control games through their ground attack.
What's Isiah Pacheco's average Receptions last 10 games?
Pacheco averages 2.4 receptions over his last 10 games against a typical line of 2.2. While this shows a slight positive differential of +0.2, the 40% over rate proves he struggles to consistently reach these totals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pacheco reception unders when the Chiefs are road favorites or facing weak run defenses. These game scripts favor ground control, limiting his pass-catching opportunities and increasing the likelihood of staying under his prop total.