Isaiah Likely has crushed receiving yards props with a 60% over rate (6-4-0) across his last 10 games, averaging 34.2 yards against a 25.6 line for an impressive +8.6 differential. The Ravens tight end is currently riding a three-game over streak, generating a healthy +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Likely's receiving yards dominance stems from Baltimore's evolving offensive identity and his unique skill set as a receiving-first tight end. The Ravens have increasingly utilized Likely in spread formations and red zone packages, where his 6'4" frame creates mismatches against linebackers and safeties. His 34.2-yard average represents a significant 33.6% premium over the typical 25.6 line, suggesting oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing his target share and efficiency. The three-game over streak indicates recent momentum, likely tied to increased chemistry with Lamar Jackson and potential injuries to other receiving options that have elevated Likely's role. However, the 40% under rate (4 games) shows this isn't automatic money. Those under hits likely came in blowout scenarios or games where Baltimore leaned heavily on their rushing attack. The key risk moving forward is regression to the mean, as a +8.6 yard differential above the line is substantial and may not be sustainable long-term. Additionally, Baltimore's game script dependency could hurt Likely's volume in games where they establish early leads and pound the rock with their elite rushing attack.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Likely's 34.2-yard average and +8.6 differential above the line represents genuine value, especially given his expanding role in Baltimore's offense. The three-game over streak suggests recent momentum and increased target share. However, the Ravens' run-heavy tendencies and potential for blowout game scripts create volatility. Target overs when Baltimore faces high-scoring opponents or plays from behind scenarios where passing volume increases.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 37.5 | 73.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 28.5 | 53.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 23.5 | 17.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 25.5 | 38.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 20.5 | 75.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 22.5 | 27.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 13.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Isaiah Likely's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Isaiah Likely has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 34.2 receiving yards per game against typical lines around 25.6 yards, creating an +8.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Isaiah Likely receiving yards props. His 60% over rate, +8.6 yard differential above the line, and current three-game over streak indicate consistent value. However, monitor game scripts as Baltimore's run-heavy approach can limit passing volume.
What's Isaiah Likely's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Isaiah Likely averages 34.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 25.6 yards. This +8.6 differential represents a 33.6% premium above oddsmaker expectations, indicating consistent undervaluation of his production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Isaiah Likely receiving yards overs when Baltimore faces high-scoring opponents or competitive games requiring increased passing volume. Avoid when the Ravens are heavy favorites likely to control games through their rushing attack and limit overall passing attempts.