Hunter Henry has exceeded his receiving yards line in 57.1% of games (16-12 record) with a strong +5.4 yard average differential over 28 games. The +9.1% ROI on overs significantly outweighs the -18.2% under returns. Despite a current 3-game under streak, the data supports a lean over approach.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Henry's receiving yards props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency. The Patriots tight end has consistently outperformed his betting lines, averaging 38.07 yards against a 32.68 average line across 28 games since September 2023. This +5.4 yard differential translates to meaningful betting value, particularly when considering the 57.1% over rate generates positive ROI while unders hemorrhage -18.2%. The trend's persistence suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Henry's role evolution in New England's offense. His reliable target share and red zone usage create a stable floor that betting lines often undervalue. The current 3-game under streak appears more like natural variance than a fundamental shift, especially given his previous 5-game over streak demonstrates the trend's volatility works both ways. Henry's consistency as a possession receiver in an offense that frequently trails creates favorable game script scenarios. The key risk lies in potential target competition from other pass catchers, but Henry's veteran presence and sure hands maintain his target priority. Market corrections could eventually narrow this edge, but current data suggests the inefficiency persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% hit rate combined with +5.4 yard average differential creates legitimate value despite the recent under streak. Henry's consistent role in New England's passing attack and the market's apparent undervaluation of his production make overs the preferred play. The main risk is target volatility in game scripts where the Patriots control possession, but his red zone reliability provides a solid floor for yardage accumulation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 43.5 | 0.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 42.5 | 39.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 43.5 | 25.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 45.5 | 75.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 44.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 63.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 41.5 | 14.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 38.5 | 56.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 45.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 28.5 | 92.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 41.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 32.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 27.5 | 12.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 26.5 | 109.0 | +82.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Henry's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Hunter Henry has gone over his receiving yards prop in 16 of 28 games (57.1%) since September 2023. His under record stands at 12 games, creating a profitable 16-12 overall record with strong consistency across the sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Henry Receiving Yards all games?
Bet over on Hunter Henry's receiving yards props. The 57.1% hit rate and +5.4 yard average differential create legitimate value. Despite the recent 3-game under streak, the underlying trend remains strong with positive ROI.
What's Hunter Henry's average Receiving Yards all games?
Hunter Henry averages 38.07 receiving yards per game compared to his average betting line of 32.68 yards. This +5.4 yard differential represents significant value, showing he consistently outperforms market expectations by nearly a full reception.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Henry receiving yards overs in games where New England projects to trail or face high-scoring opponents. His reliable target share and red zone usage make him particularly valuable when the Patriots need to throw frequently.