Hayden Hurst's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI for over backers. The Chargers tight end averages 17.0 yards against a 17.7 line, creating consistent value on unders with a current four-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Hurst's underwhelming receiving production stems from the Chargers' evolving offensive identity and his role within it. Averaging 17.0 receiving yards against lines set at 17.7 reveals sportsbooks consistently overvaluing his involvement in the passing game. The -0.7 differential might seem marginal, but it's created sustainable betting value with under bettors enjoying a 14.6% ROI while over backers have hemorrhaged money at -23.6%. The current four-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects Hurst's diminished target share in an offense that's leaned heavily on running backs and wide receivers. Los Angeles has increasingly used Hurst as a blocking specialist rather than a primary receiving threat, limiting his ceiling in games where the Chargers control tempo. The 40% over rate across 10 games suggests systematic underperformance rather than bad luck, as Hurst has failed to exceed modest expectations consistently. His longest over streak of just three games indicates he lacks the weekly floor that makes tight end props reliable for over bettors. The trend appears sustainable given his role definition and the Chargers' offensive philosophy, which prioritizes efficiency over volume for the tight end position.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hurst's 40% over rate and negative 0.7-yard differential against the line create legitimate value on unders, especially with sportsbooks slow to adjust expectations downward. The four-game under streak reflects his reduced receiving role rather than temporary variance. Risk lies in potential game script changes that force more passing volume, but his blocking-heavy usage makes unders the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 18.5 | 6.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 5.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 33.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 54.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 16.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 21.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hayden Hurst's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Hurst has gone 4-6-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. Under backers have profited with a 14.6% ROI while over bettors lost 23.6%, making unders the clear value play.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Hurst's receiving yards props. His 40% over rate and -0.7 average differential against the line create consistent value, with a current four-game under streak reflecting his blocking-focused role in the Chargers offense.
What's Hayden Hurst's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Hurst averages 17.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 17.7 yards. This -0.7 differential consistently favors under bettors, as sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his reduced receiving role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurst under props when the Chargers are favored or in neutral game scripts where they can control tempo. His blocking-heavy usage makes unders most profitable when Los Angeles isn't forced into obvious passing situations.