Gus Edwards has hit the over on his rushing yards prop just 4 times in 10 games (40.0% rate), delivering a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 33.9 yards against a 33.4 line, the under has been the profitable play with +14.6% returns. Lean under on Edwards rushing props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Gus Edwards' inconsistent role in the Chargers offense. While his 33.9 yard average sits marginally above the typical 33.4 line, the 40% over rate reveals the volatility that makes this prop challenging. Edwards has struggled to find consistent touches in a backfield that often features multiple contributors, leading to the feast-or-famine production that burns over bettors. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates books have been pricing his props efficiently, if not favorably toward the under. His recent streak pattern shows extended cold stretches, including a three-game under run, suggesting when Edwards struggles with volume, he really struggles. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the overall trend points to a player whose ceiling is capped by game script and snap share concerns. The positive differential of just 0.5 yards above the line masks the frequency with which he falls short, making the under the mathematically superior play despite the razor-thin margin.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with +14.6% ROI makes a compelling case for fading Edwards rushing props. His limited role in the Chargers' offense creates too much variance for reliable over hits, even with the slight average edge. Target unders when the line sits at 33+ yards, as Edwards has shown difficulty reaching that threshold consistently. Main risk is a potential workload spike if injuries hit the backfield.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 34.5 | 68.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 36.5 | 23.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 35.5 | 36.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 46.5 | 32.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 22.5 | 11.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 30.5 | 27.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 55.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 9.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 44.5 | 59.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gus Edwards's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Edwards has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of 10 games (40% rate) over his last 10 contests. He's currently on a 1-game over streak after hitting three straight unders prior.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gus Edwards Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Edwards rushing yards props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI for under bettors makes this the clear profitable side, despite his slight average edge over the line.
What's Gus Edwards's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Edwards averages 33.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 0.5 yards above the typical 33.4 line. However, this minimal edge masks frequent shortfalls that favor under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards rushing yards unders when lines are set at 33+ yards, as he's struggled to reach this threshold consistently. Avoid after extended under streaks when a correction bounce might occur.