Geno Smith's rushing yards props present a dead-even split with 5-5-0 O/U record over his last 10 games, averaging 10.7 yards against an 11.9 line. The -1.2 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest the market has this priced efficiently. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Geno Smith's rushing production over this 10-game sample reveals a quarterback whose mobility is accurately priced by oddsmakers. The 50% hit rate combined with his 10.7 average falling 1.2 yards short of the typical 11.9 line indicates books have found the sweet spot. Smith's rushing attempts stem primarily from broken plays and designed rollouts rather than scrambling ability, creating inconsistent volume that makes props difficult to predict. The longest streaks of 5 unders and 4 overs demonstrate the volatility inherent in quarterback rushing props, where game script heavily influences outcomes. Without clear splits showing favorable conditions, we're essentially flipping coins on a player whose rushing production varies wildly based on Seattle's offensive approach and opponent pressure. The negative ROI on both sides confirms that even perfect information wouldn't generate profit here. Smith's age and pocket-passing style suggest this isn't a player whose rushing props offer exploitable edges. The current 1-game over streak provides no predictive value given the small sample and lack of underlying trend drivers.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record combined with negative ROI on both sides signals an efficiently priced market. Geno Smith's rushing production lacks the consistency or identifiable patterns needed for profitable prop betting. Without favorable splits or clear regression spots, this represents a coin flip with house juice working against you.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 2.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 2.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 29.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Geno Smith has gone 5-5-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 10.7 yards against typical lines around 11.9 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Neither over nor under offers value on Geno Smith rushing yards props. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides make this a clear pass situation.
What's Geno Smith's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Geno Smith averages 10.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games, falling 1.2 yards short of the typical 11.9 line, indicating consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Geno Smith rushing yards props entirely. The lack of exploitable patterns, negative ROI, and efficient market pricing make this an unprofitable proposition regardless of timing.