Geno Smith's rushing yards in divisional games presents a perfectly balanced but unprofitable betting situation, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time across 10 games with a modest +0.8 yard edge over the typical 11.1-yard line. The -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing with no clear exploitable edge.
Expert Analysis
Smith's divisional rushing performance reveals a quarterback operating within a tightly defined system against familiar opponents. The 11.9-yard average against an 11.1-yard line represents minimal value, while the perfect 50% split rate indicates market makers have accurately priced this prop. Divisional games typically feature heightened defensive preparation and familiarity with opponent tendencies, which explains why Smith's mobility hasn't translated to consistent over performance despite his dual-threat capabilities. The negative ROI on both sides reflects the juice working against bettors in what appears to be a coin-flip proposition. Smith's rushing production in these contests lacks the volatility needed for profitable betting opportunities, as defensive coordinators within the NFC West have extensive film study and specific game plans to contain his scrambling ability. The absence of meaningful splits data further suggests this trend lacks the nuanced angles that create betting edges. Without clear situational advantages or regression indicators, this represents a market-efficient prop where the house edge dominates any perceived statistical advantage.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record combined with negative ROI on both sides indicates an efficiently priced market where the juice eliminates any edge from the modest +0.8 yard differential. While Smith averages slightly above the typical line, the lack of directional bias and consistent underperformance relative to expectations makes this a clear avoid. Wait for more favorable spots with stronger directional trends.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 2.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 29.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 28.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 21.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Geno Smith props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Geno Smith has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 5 of 10 divisional games (50% rate), averaging 11.9 yards against a typical 11.1-yard line for a modest +0.8 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Rushing Yards divisional games?
Pass on both sides. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record with -4.5% ROI indicates an efficiently priced market where the house edge eliminates any advantage from Smith's slight statistical edge.
What's Geno Smith's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Smith averages 11.9 rushing yards in divisional games, just 0.8 yards above the typical 11.1-yard line. This minimal edge is insufficient to overcome standard betting juice and market efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Smith's rushing yards in divisional games entirely. The balanced results and negative ROI suggest waiting for non-divisional matchups or other props with clearer directional trends and better value.