Geno Smith's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 35.5% of overs across 31 games with an average of 1.29 TDs against typical 1.5 lines. The -32.3% over ROI versus +23.2% under ROI creates a compelling fade angle on a quarterback consistently falling short of modest expectations.
Expert Analysis
Smith's touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating within Seattle's conservative offensive framework that prioritizes ball security over explosive plays. His 1.29 average against 1.5 lines represents a meaningful -0.2 differential that persists across a substantial 31-game sample, suggesting this isn't random variance but systematic underperformance. The Seahawks' run-heavy approach near the goal line limits Smith's red zone opportunities, while his risk-averse playing style favors shorter completions over touchdown strikes. Seattle's offensive philosophy under their current system emphasizes sustaining drives through methodical passing rather than explosive scoring plays, creating an environment where Smith consistently falls short of even modest touchdown expectations. The 11-20 over/under record demonstrates remarkable consistency in this underperformance, with the longest under streak reaching five games compared to just two consecutive overs. This pattern suggests books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect Smith's actual touchdown production within Seattle's system. The substantial ROI gap between overs and unders indicates sharp money recognizes this edge, making the under a high-probability play when lines remain inflated around 1.5 touchdowns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's systematic underperformance against touchdown lines stems from Seattle's conservative offensive approach and his risk-averse style, creating a sustainable edge. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in games where Seattle projects to control pace and lean on their ground game. The primary risk involves garbage-time scenarios or potential offensive philosophy shifts, but the 31-game sample provides strong conviction in this trend's persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Geno Smith has gone over his passing touchdown props in just 11 of 31 games (35.5%), creating an 11-20-0 record. His consistent underperformance against modest lines makes him a reliable under target across this substantial sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Geno Smith's passing touchdowns. His 1.29 average against typical 1.5 lines, combined with +23.2% under ROI versus -32.3% over ROI, creates a clear edge. Seattle's conservative system consistently limits his touchdown upside.
What's Geno Smith's average Passing TDs all games?
Geno Smith averages 1.29 passing touchdowns per game, sitting 0.2 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line. This differential represents meaningful underperformance that has persisted across 31 games, creating consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Geno Smith touchdown unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, especially in games where Seattle projects to control pace. His underperformance is most pronounced in methodical, run-heavy game scripts that limit explosive scoring opportunities.