Garrett Wilson has hit the under on his receptions prop in 60% of his last 10 games, going 4-6 O/U with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 5.5 receptions against a 5.3 line, the frequency of unders creates a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's reception prop presents a classic case where raw averages mask betting reality. While his 5.5 reception average slightly exceeds the typical 5.3 line, the distribution heavily favors unders with a 60% hit rate over the sample. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates consistent line inflation, suggesting oddsmakers are pricing in Wilson's ceiling games while underweighting his floor performances. The Jets' offensive inconsistency has been a primary driver, with quarterback play and game script variations creating volatile target distributions. Wilson's talent remains elite, but the team's struggles have led to games where he simply doesn't see enough volume to clear inflated lines. The current streak of one under follows a pattern of clustering, with the longest under streak reaching three games. This suggests Wilson's reception totals are more game-script dependent than his talent would indicate. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, with recreational bettors likely overvaluing Wilson's name recognition and talent level while ignoring the Jets' offensive limitations. The persistence of this trend through 10 games indicates structural issues rather than temporary variance, making the under a sustainable angle until the Jets' offensive situation stabilizes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a mathematical edge despite Wilson's talent. The Jets' offensive dysfunction continues to limit his ceiling, making inflated reception lines vulnerable. Primary risk is a potential quarterback change or offensive coordinator adjustment that could unlock more consistent target volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Wilson has gone 4-6 O/U on his receptions props over his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time with a -23.6% ROI on overs and +14.6% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receptions last 10 games?
Lean under on Wilson's receptions props. The 60% under rate and positive ROI on unders create a mathematical edge, despite his talent level and 5.5 reception average.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Wilson averages 5.5 receptions over his last 10 games, which is 0.2 above the typical 5.3 line, but the under still hits 60% of the time due to distribution patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson reception unders when lines are set at 5.5 or higher, especially in games where the Jets are expected to trail or face strong pass defenses limiting offensive rhythm.