Garrett Wilson's home reception props present a compelling over opportunity with an 11-6-0 record (64.7% hit rate) and +23.5% ROI. Wilson averages 6.35 receptions at home versus a typical 5.03 line, creating a consistent +1.3 edge that suggests strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's home reception dominance stems from the Jets' offensive philosophy at MetLife Stadium, where they've consistently leaned on short-to-intermediate passing concepts that favor their primary receiver. The 64.7% over rate across 17 games represents genuine signal, not noise, as Wilson benefits from increased target share in familiar surroundings. His 6.35 home average significantly outpaces the 5.03 line, indicating oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this location-based usage pattern. The trend shows remarkable persistence with only two consecutive unders as the longest drought, while Wilson rattled off five straight overs during his peak home stretch. This consistency suggests systemic factors rather than random variance. The Jets' home game script typically involves more passing attempts due to crowd energy and coaching comfort, directly benefiting Wilson's reception volume. However, the recent one-game under streak and Wilson's overall target competition from emerging receivers present potential regression risks. The +23.5% ROI demonstrates this isn't just a high-frequency trend but a profitable one, though the -32.6% under ROI warns against contrarian plays. Wilson's home reception props remain one of the more reliable receiver trends in the NFL, particularly when the Jets face teams likely to push the pace or build early leads.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 64.7% home over rate and +1.3 average differential create a sustainable edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected. The trend works best when the Jets face competent offenses that can force New York into pass-heavy game scripts. Primary risk involves potential target redistribution and the natural regression that follows extended hot streaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Garrett Wilson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receptions prop record home games?
Wilson's home reception props show an 11-6-0 record with 64.7% overs hitting. He averages 6.35 receptions per home game, generating +23.5% ROI for over bettors across 17 games dating back to September 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receptions home games?
Bet over on Wilson's home reception props. The 64.7% hit rate and +1.3 average differential above typical lines create a sustainable edge. Focus on games where the Jets face competent offenses requiring pass-heavy responses.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receptions home games?
Wilson averages 6.35 receptions in home games compared to his typical 5.03 prop line. This +1.3 differential represents significant value, as oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced home usage patterns and target share.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson's home reception overs against teams with strong offenses that can build leads or maintain pace. Avoid when the Jets face elite defenses or run-heavy opponents that could limit overall passing attempts and Wilson's opportunities.