Garrett Wilson's receptions props have delivered consistent value with a 57.6% over rate across 33 games, averaging 5.88 receptions against typical lines of 4.98. The +0.9 differential represents genuine edge, not market inefficiency. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's reception consistency stems from his role as the Jets' primary target in an offense that frequently trails and relies on short-to-intermediate passing. His 5.88 average against 4.98 lines isn't fluky—it reflects books undervaluing his target share in New York's pass-heavy game scripts. The 57.6% over rate with +9.9% ROI demonstrates sustainable edge rather than variance. Wilson's route-running precision and quarterback trust translate to steady volume regardless of game flow. The concerning -19.0% under ROI suggests books have adjusted somewhat, but the fundamental mismatch between his usage and market perception persists. His ability to produce in garbage time and during comeback attempts provides additional over insurance. The recent under streak appears more statistical noise than trend reversal, given Wilson's consistent target share and the Jets' offensive identity. Books seem anchored to conservative projections that don't fully account for Wilson's snap rate and route diversity. The lack of meaningful competition for targets in New York's receiving corps further supports his floor.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 0.9 reception edge over market lines reflects genuine value from his target monopoly in New York's pass-heavy offense. The 57.6% hit rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable advantage rather than lucky variance. Primary risk comes from potential game script shifts if the Jets establish early leads, but their offensive struggles typically force passing volume that favors Wilson's reception totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 13.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receptions prop record all games?
Wilson's receptions props show a 19-14-0 over/under record across 33 games, hitting the over 57.6% of the time. This translates to profitable +9.9% ROI on over bets while under bets lose -19.0%, demonstrating clear market edge favoring the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receptions all games?
Bet the over on Wilson's receptions props. His 57.6% over rate with positive ROI indicates genuine value, averaging 5.88 receptions against typical 4.98 lines. The 0.9 differential represents sustainable edge from his target share in New York's offense.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receptions all games?
Wilson averages 5.88 receptions per game compared to typical prop lines around 4.98, creating a significant +0.9 differential. This gap reflects books undervaluing his consistent target volume and role as the Jets' primary receiving option in pass-heavy game scripts.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson reception overs when the Jets face high-powered offenses likely to create shootouts or when they're road underdogs. His garbage-time production and consistent target share in comeback situations make him especially valuable in negative game scripts for New York.