Wilson's home receiving yards trend presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.2% overs across 17 games with a brutal -21.4% ROI on overs. The 4-game under streak and consistent +12.3% under ROI signal sustainable value betting against inflated home lines.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's home struggles reflect the Jets' offensive dysfunction amplified by familiar surroundings where expectations run highest. The 60.29 average against 59.21 lines suggests minimal home field advantage for Wilson individually, while the stark ROI disparity (-21.4% over vs +12.3% under) indicates books consistently overvalue his home performance. The current 4-game under streak isn't random variance—it represents Wilson operating within a constrained offensive system that fails to maximize his talents regardless of venue. Home games often feature tighter defensive game plans from opponents who've studied more film, and Wilson's route tree limitations become more apparent against prepared defenses. The 41.2% over rate across 17 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the modest 1.1-yard differential between average and line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to this pattern. Wilson's talent remains undeniable, but the Jets' offensive infrastructure consistently underdelivers at home where fan and media pressure peaks. This creates a systematic edge for under bettors, particularly when lines inflate due to perceived home field advantage that simply doesn't materialize in Wilson's statistical output.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17-game sample reveals consistent under value with Wilson averaging just 1.1 yards above typical lines while delivering 58.8% unders. Target this trend when home lines exceed 62 yards, as Wilson's ceiling gets capped by Jets' offensive limitations. Primary risk remains Wilson's explosive upside in potential shootout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 54.5 | 51.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 54.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 41.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 18.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 61.5 | 90.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 60.5 | 107.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 55.5 | 41.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 65.5 | 33.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 65.5 | 76.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 53.5 | 108.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 53.5 | 50.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 51.5 | 44.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 68.5 | 80.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 55.5 | 90.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 52.5 | 60.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Wilson's home receiving yards record shows 7 overs and 10 unders across 17 games (41.2% over rate). He averages 60.29 yards against typical lines of 59.21, creating just a 1.1-yard positive differential at home.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Wilson's home receiving yards. The 58.8% under rate and +12.3% under ROI across 17 games provide clear statistical edge, especially with the current 4-game under streak showing trend persistence.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receiving Yards home games?
Wilson averages 60.29 receiving yards in home games, barely exceeding his typical line of 59.21 by just 1.1 yards. This minimal differential explains why unders hit 58.8% of the time at home.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson receiving yards unders when home lines exceed 62 yards, as books often inflate expectations. Avoid in potential shootout spots, but the trend works best in divisional games where defenses know his tendencies.