Garrett Wilson shows minimal edge in away games with a perfectly balanced 8-8 over/under record on receiving yards props. While he averages 67.9 yards against 60.2-yard lines, the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. This is a situational pass without additional context.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's away receiving yards trend reveals a market that has largely solved this puzzle. The 7.8-yard positive differential between his average (67.9) and typical lines (60.2) initially appears promising, but the neutral ROI tells the real story—books have adjusted accordingly. The 50% hit rate across 16 games spanning nearly two seasons indicates no systematic inefficiency to exploit. What's particularly telling is the recent volatility, with streaks reaching five unders and three overs, suggesting game-specific factors matter more than the simple home/away split. Wilson's talent level ensures he can exceed modest lines regularly, but road environments introduce variables like crowd noise affecting timing routes, unfamiliar stadium conditions, and potentially different defensive attention. The Jets' inconsistent offensive line play becomes more pronounced on the road, where protection schemes face greater pressure. Without splits showing specific opponent strength, weather conditions, or quarterback performance correlations, this becomes a coin flip with efficient pricing. The market has clearly identified Wilson as a reliable road receiver who performs near expectations, making this trend more about individual game analysis than systematic betting edges.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 8-8 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing that eliminates systematic edges. While Wilson averages 7.8 yards above typical lines, books have clearly adjusted to this reality. Focus on game-specific factors like matchup, weather, and Jets' offensive line health rather than the simple away game angle. This trend offers no exploitable edge without additional context.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 51.5 | 66.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 56.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 59.5 | 114.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 70.5 | 41.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 60.5 | 113.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 53.5 | 61.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 57.5 | 101.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 70.5 | 57.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 69.5 | 60.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 51.5 | 50.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 29.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 68.5 | 9.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 66.5 | 93.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 60.5 | 100.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 57.5 | 54.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Wilson's receiving yards prop record in away games stands at exactly 8-8, hitting overs 50% of the time across 16 road contests from September 2023 through December 2024, showing no systematic bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards away games?
Pass on Wilson's away receiving yards props without additional context. The perfectly balanced record and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing with no exploitable edge in either direction.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receiving Yards away games?
Wilson averages 67.9 receiving yards in away games against typical lines of 60.2 yards, creating a positive 7.8-yard differential that suggests consistent performance above modest market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Focus on specific game conditions rather than the simple away angle. Target games with favorable matchups against weak secondaries, good weather conditions, and when the Jets' offensive line is healthy for optimal protection.