Garrett Wilson's receiving yards props present a classic under opportunity with a 45.5% over rate across 33 games. His 64.0-yard average beats the typical 59.68 line, but the -13.2% ROI on overs reveals consistent market overvaluation. The under side offers positive expectation with +4.1% returns.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's receiving yards props expose a fascinating market inefficiency where perception diverges from profit potential. Despite averaging 64.0 yards and clearing his typical line by 4.3 yards per game, the under bet has generated positive returns while overs have burned money consistently. This suggests sportsbooks are pricing in Wilson's talent and target share while underestimating the Jets' offensive limitations and game script volatility. The 15-18 over/under record reflects Wilson's boom-bust nature as a receiver who can disappear in low-volume passing games or when facing elite coverage. His prop lines often inflate due to his status as the Jets' clear WR1, but this creates value on the under when the team struggles offensively or gets into negative game scripts. The +4.1% ROI on unders indicates this trend has persistence, likely driven by consistent line inflation that fails to account for the Jets' offensive inconsistency. Wilson's talent keeps him competitive with most lines, but the betting market consistently overestimates his floor in a volatile offensive system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +4.1% ROI on unders combined with the 54.5% under rate creates a sustainable edge against inflated lines. Target Wilson unders when his line exceeds 62 yards or when the Jets face strong pass defenses. The primary risk is Wilson's legitimate talent creating explosive games that can quickly exceed any reasonable line, but the data suggests these performances are less frequent than the market prices.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 54.5 | 51.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 51.5 | 66.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 54.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 56.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 59.5 | 114.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 41.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 18.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 70.5 | 41.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 61.5 | 90.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 60.5 | 113.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 53.5 | 61.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 60.5 | 107.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 57.5 | 101.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 55.5 | 41.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 65.5 | 33.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Wilson has gone over his receiving yards prop 15 times and under 18 times across 33 games, resulting in a 45.5% over rate. This 15-18 record shows a slight lean toward unders despite his consistent production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the under on Wilson's receiving yards props. The +4.1% ROI on unders versus -13.2% on overs creates a clear mathematical edge, with the 54.5% under rate providing sustainable value against inflated lines.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Wilson averages 64.0 receiving yards per game compared to his typical line of 59.68 yards, creating a +4.3 yard differential. However, this average advantage hasn't translated to profitable over bets due to his inconsistent floor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 62 yards or when facing strong pass defenses. The market consistently overvalues his floor production, creating the best under opportunities on inflated numbers.