Gabe Davis has been a consistent under play in receiving yards, going 4-6 O/U (40.0% overs) over his last 10 games while averaging 23.9 yards against a 33.7 line average. The -9.8 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders signals a clear lean under moving forward.
Expert Analysis
Davis's receiving yards struggles stem from Jacksonville's offensive dysfunction and his diminished role in the passing game. Averaging nearly 10 yards below his betting lines suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to his reduced target share and the Jaguars' overall passing inefficiency. The 40% over rate indicates books are still pricing him based on his Buffalo days rather than his current reality as a complementary receiver in a struggling offense. His current three-game under streak aligns with Jacksonville's recent offensive woes, where they've struggled to sustain drives and create consistent passing opportunities. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose market perception exceeds his current production level. Davis faces the dual challenge of reduced target volume and a quarterback situation that limits explosive passing plays. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 games suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in his role and the team's offensive capabilities. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates ongoing value, particularly when books set his receiving yards above 30. The -9.8 yard average differential indicates systematic mispricing. Main risk is a potential offensive breakout game or increased target share, but Jacksonville's offensive limitations make this unlikely in most matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 29.5 | 3.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 19.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 32.5 | 13.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 28.5 | 45.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 35.5 | 38.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 35.5 | -2.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 38.5 | 18.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 36.5 | 43.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 36.5 | 62.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 37.5 | 0.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gabe Davis's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Davis has gone 4-6 O/U on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% of overs. He's averaging 23.9 receiving yards against a 33.7 average line, creating a -9.8 yard differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gabe Davis Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Davis receiving yards props. His 40% over rate and -9.8 yard average differential against lines shows consistent underperformance. The +14.6% ROI on unders over 10 games indicates clear betting value on the under side.
What's Gabe Davis's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Davis is averaging 23.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 33.7 yards. This -9.8 yard differential shows he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly a full 10 yards per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis under bets when his receiving yards line is set above 30, especially against strong pass defenses. His reduced role in Jacksonville's offense and the team's passing struggles create the best conditions for under value.