Foster Moreau's receiving yards props present a compelling over opportunity with a dominant 12-4 record (75% hit rate) and massive +13.1 yard average differential above the line. The Saints tight end is averaging 27.88 receiving yards against a 14.81 average line, creating consistent value. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Foster Moreau's receiving yards trend represents one of the most consistent over opportunities in the tight end market, driven by systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers. The 27.88 yard average against a 14.81 line reveals books are pricing Moreau as a blocking-first tight end when he's clearly evolved into a legitimate receiving threat in New Orleans' offense. The +43.2% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable edge, not random variance. Moreau's role has expanded significantly since joining the Saints, benefiting from their pass-heavy approach and Derek Carr's comfort targeting tight ends in intermediate routes. The current five-game over streak aligns with his increased snap share and target volume, suggesting this isn't a hot streak but rather proper market adjustment to his enhanced role. The 75% over rate across 16 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the -52.3% under ROI shows the market hasn't corrected despite consistent evidence. Risk factors include potential game script dependency and the Saints' occasional emphasis on running backs in the passing game, but Moreau's consistent floor of 15+ yards in most games provides excellent downside protection for over bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Foster Moreau's receiving yards props offer consistent value with books underpricing his expanded role in New Orleans' passing attack. The 75% over rate and +13.1 yard differential above lines create a sustainable edge, particularly when the Saints are expected to throw frequently. Main risk involves potential regression as books adjust lines upward, making early week betting optimal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 24.5 | 31.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 19.5 | 47.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 21.5 | 33.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 39.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 40.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 6.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 50.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 38.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 8.5 | 54.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 16.5 | 2.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 43.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Foster Moreau's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Foster Moreau's receiving yards props show a dominant 12-4 over record across 16 games, hitting at a 75% rate. He's averaging 27.88 receiving yards against a 14.81 average line, creating a massive +13.1 yard differential that consistently rewards over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Foster Moreau Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the over on Foster Moreau's receiving yards props. The 75% over rate and +43.2% ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency, with books underpricing his expanded receiving role. Target overs when the Saints are expected to throw frequently for maximum edge.
What's Foster Moreau's average Receiving Yards all games?
Foster Moreau averages 27.88 receiving yards across all games, significantly outpacing his 14.81 average prop line. This +13.1 yard differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market pricing among tight ends, creating consistent over value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Foster Moreau receiving yards overs early in the week before potential line adjustments, especially when the Saints face pass-funnel defenses or are expected to trail. His 5-game over streak suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced role.