Evan Engram has been an under machine over his last 10 games, hitting the under at an 80% clip (2-8-0 record) while averaging 42.5 receiving yards against a 46.2 line. Currently riding a seven-game under streak, this trend screams systematic value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a tight end whose production has consistently fallen short of market expectations. Engram's 42.5-yard average represents a meaningful 3.7-yard gap below his typical line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his recent usage patterns or the Jaguars' offensive struggles. The 20% over rate across 10 games indicates this isn't random variance—it's a sustained pattern. Jacksonville's offensive inconsistency likely plays a major role, as quarterback instability and game script issues have limited Engram's ceiling. The seven-game under streak is particularly telling, as it suggests either a role change, injury management, or systematic defensive attention that hasn't been priced into the market. While regression is always possible with extreme streaks, the underlying average being nearly four yards below market suggests there's substance behind this trend. The -61.8% ROI on overs versus +52.7% on unders demonstrates just how profitable this pattern has been for sharp bettors. Until we see evidence of increased target share or offensive improvement, Engram's receiving yards props appear systematically overvalued.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate combined with the 3.7-yard negative differential creates a compelling case for continued under performance. Target spots where Engram faces strong coverage or Jacksonville enters negative game scripts. Primary risk is natural regression from the extreme seven-game streak, but the underlying metrics support continued under value until the market adjusts or Jacksonville's offense improves significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 42.5 | 33.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 47.5 | 41.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 28.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 49.5 | 40.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 50.5 | 45.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 48.5 | 36.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 48.5 | 35.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 37.5 | 102.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 44.5 | 5.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 48.5 | 60.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Engram's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Engram has gone 2-8-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 42.5 yards against typical lines around 46.2, creating a -3.7 yard differential that favors under bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Engram Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Engram's receiving yards. The 80% under rate and 3.7-yard negative differential create strong value. He's currently on a seven-game under streak with underlying metrics supporting continued under performance until market adjustment occurs.
What's Evan Engram's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Engram is averaging 42.5 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 46.2 yards. This 3.7-yard gap below market expectations represents the core value driving the 80% under success rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Engram unders when Jacksonville faces strong defenses or enters games as significant underdogs where negative game script limits passing volume. Avoid when the Jaguars are favored in potential shootouts that could inflate his usage.