Drake Maye has hit the over on his passing touchdown props in 6 of 11 games (54.5%), averaging 1.36 TDs against lines typically set around 1.05. The modest +4.1% ROI on overs suggests a slight edge, though the sample remains limited for a rookie quarterback still developing.
Expert Analysis
Drake Maye's passing touchdown production reflects the growing pains of a rookie quarterback operating in a conservative offensive system. His 1.36 TD average against 1.05 lines creates a meaningful 0.31 differential, but the 54.5% over rate suggests books are pricing him fairly efficiently. The Patriots' run-heavy approach and emphasis on ball security limits Maye's red zone opportunities, yet his arm talent creates explosive play potential that can quickly push him over modest lines. The -13.2% ROI on unders indicates that when Maye fails to hit, it's often by wide margins, suggesting binary outcomes rather than consistent near-misses. His development trajectory shows flashes of high-end play mixed with rookie inconsistency, making game-to-game prediction challenging. The Patriots' conservative game management and limited receiving weapons create a ceiling on his touchdown upside, while his mobility and improving pocket presence provide floors against complete duds. Weather conditions and opponent strength heavily influence his passing volume, as New England often abandons the pass in adverse conditions or when trailing significantly. The current streak of one under follows his longest over streak of three games, highlighting the volatility inherent in rookie quarterback props where confidence and rhythm can shift dramatically week to week.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Maye's 1.36 average against 1.05 lines provides consistent value, and his 54.5% hit rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his development. Target games with favorable weather and competitive game scripts where New England will need to throw. The main risk is the Patriots' conservative approach in blowouts or poor conditions, which can cap his attempts and red zone looks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Drake Maye's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Drake Maye has gone over his passing touchdown props in 6 of 11 games this season (54.5% over rate), with 5 unders. His record shows slight over bias but relatively balanced results for a rookie quarterback.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Drake Maye Passing TDs all games?
Lean over on Drake Maye's passing touchdown props. His 1.36 average against 1.05 lines provides consistent value, and the +4.1% ROI on overs suggests books haven't fully caught up to his development trajectory.
What's Drake Maye's average Passing TDs all games?
Drake Maye averages 1.36 passing touchdowns per game compared to typical lines around 1.05. This +0.31 differential represents meaningful value, though his rookie inconsistency creates game-to-game volatility in hitting these numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Drake Maye touchdown props in favorable weather with competitive game scripts. Avoid games with poor conditions or potential blowouts where New England's conservative approach limits his passing attempts and red zone opportunities.