DJ Moore has absolutely dominated divisional receptions props, going 10-1 over (90.9%) with a massive +2.2 average differential versus the line. This represents one of the strongest positional edges in the NFL prop market, generating +73.5% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
DJ Moore's divisional dominance stems from Chicago's strategic emphasis on short-to-intermediate passing in high-stakes divisional matchups. The Bears consistently lean on Moore as their primary safety valve against familiar defenses that typically focus on limiting explosive plays. Divisional games create unique dynamics where defensive coordinators prioritize preventing big plays over underneath completions, naturally inflating target volume for reliable receivers like Moore. The 7.18 average receptions against a 4.95 line suggests books are systematically undervaluing Moore's role in these emotional, grind-it-out contests. The current six-game over streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern tied to game script and Chicago's offensive philosophy. However, the small 11-game sample size presents some regression risk, and the 90.9% over rate is unsustainably high long-term. The key concern is whether books will adjust lines more aggressively, though Moore's consistent usage patterns suggest this edge may persist. The -82.6% under ROI demonstrates how costly it's been to bet against this trend, reinforcing the strength of Moore's divisional performance profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90.9% over rate and +2.2 differential create a compelling edge, but the small sample size prevents maximum conviction. Moore's role as Chicago's primary target in divisional games appears sustainable given the Bears' conservative game-planning approach. The main risk is potential line adjustments, but current market pricing still offers value on overs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 11.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DJ Moore's Receptions prop record divisional games?
DJ Moore has gone 10-1 over on receptions props in divisional games, hitting the over 90.9% of the time across 11 games. This represents one of the most dominant positional trends in NFL prop betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DJ Moore Receptions divisional games?
Bet the over on DJ Moore's receptions in divisional games. The 90.9% over rate and +73.5% ROI make this a premium edge, though consider smaller unit sizes given the limited sample.
What's DJ Moore's average Receptions divisional games?
DJ Moore averages 7.18 receptions in divisional games compared to the typical 4.95 line, creating a massive +2.2 differential. This gap represents significant market inefficiency in his favor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DJ Moore receptions overs specifically in divisional matchups when Chicago faces NFC North opponents. The Bears' conservative game-planning approach in these rivalry games consistently inflates his target volume.