DJ Moore's reception props in conference games present one of the most profitable over trends in the NFL, hitting at a remarkable 73.9% rate (17-6-0) with a +41.1% ROI. Moore averages 6.04 receptions against a typical 4.8 line, creating a consistent 1.2-reception edge that's currently riding an eight-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
Moore's dominance in conference games stems from the Bears' strategic approach against familiar divisional rivals and AFC opponents where game-planning becomes more critical. The 1.2-reception differential above market lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue Moore's target share in these matchups, where Chicago often finds itself in competitive situations requiring sustained passing attacks. The eight-game over streak isn't just hot variance—it reflects Moore's role as Caleb Williams' primary security blanket in high-stakes conference battles where quick, reliable targets become essential. Conference games typically feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative play-calling, which paradoxically benefits possession receivers like Moore who thrive on short-to-intermediate routes. The sample size of 23 games provides statistical significance, while the absence of any extended under streaks (longest just two games) indicates remarkable consistency rather than boom-bust volatility. However, the extreme 73.9% over rate does raise regression concerns, particularly if the Bears' offensive philosophy shifts or if Moore faces increased defensive attention as his conference game tendencies become more apparent to opposing coordinators.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence on DJ Moore reception props in conference games. The 1.2-reception edge over market lines combined with an active eight-game streak creates compelling value, especially when the line sits at 4.5 or lower. The primary risk lies in potential regression from the unsustainable 73.9% over rate, but Moore's consistent role in Chicago's offense and the Bears' tendency toward competitive conference games support continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DJ Moore's Receptions prop record conference games?
DJ Moore has gone over his receptions prop in 17 of 23 conference games (73.9% rate) since September 2023, with just six unders and zero pushes. This represents one of the most consistent over trends for any skill position player in conference matchups.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DJ Moore Receptions conference games?
Bet over on DJ Moore's receptions in conference games, particularly when the line is 4.5 or lower. His 1.2-reception average edge over market lines and current eight-game over streak make this a profitable long-term strategy despite regression risks.
What's DJ Moore's average Receptions conference games?
DJ Moore averages 6.04 receptions in conference games compared to the typical 4.8 line, creating a significant 1.2-reception edge. This differential has produced a +41.1% ROI on over bets across 23 games since September 2023.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DJ Moore reception overs when the line is set at 4.5 or below in conference games, especially against divisional opponents where Chicago tends to rely heavily on short passing games. Avoid when the line reaches 6.0 or higher.