DJ Moore's receiving yards prop shows a clear under trend at home, hitting just 43.8% overs across 16 games with a -16.5% ROI on overs versus +7.4% on unders. Despite averaging 64.75 yards versus a 57.44 line, the inconsistency favors under betting.
Expert Analysis
DJ Moore's home receiving yards trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between production and betting value. While Moore averages 64.75 yards at Soldier Field—7.3 yards above the typical line—the under side delivers superior returns due to his pronounced volatility. The 43.8% over rate indicates that despite decent average production, Moore fails to clear his number more often than not in home games. This pattern suggests that oddsmakers may be overvaluing Moore's home environment, potentially factoring in crowd support or familiarity that doesn't translate to consistent yardage production. The Bears' offensive scheme at home appears less conducive to Moore's skill set than raw numbers suggest. Chicago's conservative home game scripts, combined with weather factors at Soldier Field during the season's latter half, likely contribute to this under-friendly environment. Moore's boom-bust nature becomes more pronounced at home, where defensive coordinators have had time to study film and implement specific containment strategies. The 7.4% ROI on unders represents genuine value, particularly when considering that Moore's current streak of one under suggests potential regression to his established home pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 7.4% under ROI combined with a 56.2% hit rate creates a profitable angle despite Moore's above-line production average. Target unders when the line exceeds 60 yards, as Moore's home volatility increases significantly above that threshold. Primary risk is a potential offensive scheme change or weather-neutral conditions that could favor Moore's route-running precision.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 55.5 | 54.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 68.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 47.5 | 106.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 62.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 46.5 | 24.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 20.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 52.5 | 105.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 59.5 | 22.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 60.5 | 36.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 66.5 | 159.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 67.5 | 18.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 72.5 | 68.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 56.5 | 58.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 54.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 62.5 | 51.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DJ Moore's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
DJ Moore's receiving yards prop record in home games stands at 7-9-0 over/under (43.8% overs) across 16 games from October 2023 through December 2024, showing a clear under trend at Soldier Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DJ Moore Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on DJ Moore's receiving yards in home games. The data shows 56.2% under success rate with positive 7.4% ROI, while overs lose money at -16.5% ROI despite his decent production averages.
What's DJ Moore's average Receiving Yards home games?
DJ Moore averages 64.75 receiving yards in home games compared to a typical line of 57.44 yards, creating a +7.3 yard differential. However, this above-line average still produces more profitable under betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DJ Moore receiving yards unders when the line exceeds 60 yards at home games. His volatility increases significantly above this threshold, and conservative Bears home game scripts limit his upside potential consistently.