DeVonta Smith has been a consistent under performer in receiving yards props, hitting the over just 30.0% of the time (3-7-0 record) over his last 10 games. Despite averaging 55.0 yards against a 51.7 line average, the -42.7% ROI on overs tells the real story. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of DeVonta Smith's recent receiving yards performance that contradicts surface-level analysis. While Smith averages 55.0 yards against a 51.7 average line, creating a seemingly favorable +3.3 differential, the 30.0% over rate reveals the critical flaw in this logic. The modest average advantage is likely skewed by one or two explosive performances while the majority of games fall short of expectations. Smith's recent pattern shows a concerning inability to consistently reach his projected totals, with the Eagles potentially limiting his target share in certain game scripts or facing defensive adjustments that have curtailed his production. The -42.7% ROI on overs is particularly damaging, suggesting that even when factoring in typical juice, backing Smith overs has been a losing proposition. The current streak of just one over in his last appearance, following a longest under streak of three games, indicates volatility rather than sustained excellence. This trend appears sustainable given that receiving yards props often reflect market inefficiencies where casual bettors overvalue big-name receivers, creating consistent value on the under side when usage patterns or target distribution shifts occur.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30.0% over rate combined with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs creates a compelling case for fading DeVonta Smith receiving yards props. While his +3.3 average differential suggests occasional big games, the consistency simply isn't there for profitable over betting. Target under bets when lines exceed 52-55 yards, as this range appears to be where the market consistently overvalues his floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 52.5 | 69.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 48.5 | 45.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 60.5 | 55.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 48.5 | 120.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 47.5 | 109.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 46.5 | 37.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 52.5 | 29.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 14.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeVonta Smith's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
DeVonta Smith has gone 3-7-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of his props. He averages 55.0 yards against a typical line of 51.7 yards, but the low hit rate reveals concerning inconsistency in his weekly production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on DeVonta Smith's receiving yards props. The 30.0% over rate and +33.6% ROI on unders create clear value, especially when his line exceeds 52-55 yards. The market consistently overestimates his weekly floor despite occasional explosive performances.
What's DeVonta Smith's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
DeVonta Smith averages 55.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 51.7 yards. While this +3.3 differential looks favorable, it's misleading given his poor 30.0% over rate and likely driven by one or two outlier performances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeVonta Smith receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 52-55 yards, particularly in games where the Eagles may lean heavily on their running game or when facing defenses that have shown ability to limit his target share and deep opportunities.