DeVonta Smith's receiving yards props in divisional games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 45.5% of overs across 11 games with a -13.2% ROI on the over side. Smith averages 57.9 yards against a 54.05 line, but the modest 3.9-yard edge doesn't overcome the poor hit rate, making unders the superior play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about divisional game dynamics suppressing Smith's production. While his 57.9-yard average suggests modest value over the 54.05 line, the 5-6 over/under record masks the true betting edge. The -13.2% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues Smith's divisional performance, likely influenced by his overall season averages that include softer matchups. Divisional games typically feature more conservative game scripts, tighter coverage schemes, and defensive coordinators with extensive film study. The Eagles' NFC East rivals have had multiple opportunities to scheme specifically for Smith, leading to more targeted coverage and reduced big-play opportunities. The recent under streak of one game follows a pattern where Smith has struggled to consistently exceed inflated lines in these familiar matchups. His longest under streak of four games suggests extended periods where divisional defenses effectively neutralize his impact. The 4.1% ROI on unders, while modest, represents sustainable value when combined with the sub-50% over rate. Market inefficiency appears rooted in public perception of Smith as a consistent producer, overlooking the specific challenges posed by divisional familiarity and defensive preparation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of a 45.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs creates a clear edge for under bettors in Smith's divisional matchups. The market consistently overprices his props in these games, likely failing to account for increased defensive familiarity and conservative game scripts. Target unders when the line approaches or exceeds his 57.9-yard divisional average, as the modest production edge doesn't justify the poor hit rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 48.5 | 45.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 48.5 | 120.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 52.5 | 29.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 14.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 58.5 | -2.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 54.5 | 79.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 59.5 | 73.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 51.5 | 99.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 61.5 | 78.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeVonta Smith's Receiving Yards prop record divisional games?
DeVonta Smith's receiving yards props in divisional games show a 5-6 over/under record (45.5% overs) across 11 games from 2023 to 2025. This translates to a -13.2% ROI on over bets and +4.1% ROI on unders, indicating consistent market overvaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards divisional games?
Bet under on DeVonta Smith's receiving yards in divisional games. The 45.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs create clear value on the under side. His divisional average of 57.9 yards doesn't overcome the poor hit rate against familiar NFC East defenses.
What's DeVonta Smith's average Receiving Yards divisional games?
DeVonta Smith averages 57.9 receiving yards in divisional games compared to an average line of 54.05 yards. While this shows a modest 3.9-yard edge, the 45.5% over rate indicates this differential doesn't translate to consistent prop success against division rivals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith's receiving yards unders when divisional lines approach or exceed his 57.9-yard average. The best opportunities arise against NFC East opponents who've had extensive time to study his tendencies and implement specific coverage schemes designed to limit his big-play potential.