De'Von Achane's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. The 1.1-yard negative differential between his 55.0 average and 56.1 line creates consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about De'Von Achane's rushing production falling short of market expectations. His 40% over rate across 10 games represents a significant deviation from the 52.4% break-even threshold, while the -1.1 yard differential between actual performance and betting lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his recent struggles. The +14.6% ROI on unders indicates sustainable value, particularly given Miami's offensive inconsistencies and Achane's role fluctuation throughout the season. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence factor - after hitting a longest under streak of four games, Achane appears trapped in a cycle where his explosive reputation keeps lines inflated relative to his actual workload. The Dolphins' pass-heavy approach in negative game scripts has limited his volume, while his boom-or-bust nature creates more variance than the market prices in. The current one-game over streak shouldn't mask the underlying pattern of underperformance. Miami's offensive line struggles and frequent trailing scenarios have consistently capped Achane's rushing opportunities, making the under a mathematically sound play when the line sits above his recent average.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.1-yard negative differential and 14.6% under ROI create legitimate value, especially when Miami faces quality run defenses or projects to trail early. The key risk is Achane's explosive ceiling in favorable matchups, but his recent volume constraints make unders the sharper play until the market adjusts lines downward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 49.5 | 121.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 60.5 | 25.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 50.5 | 120.0 | +69.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 41.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 62.5 | 24.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 55.5 | 14.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 66.5 | 32.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 63.5 | 73.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 57.5 | 37.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 49.5 | 63.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare De'Von Achane props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Von Achane's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
De'Von Achane has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with 6 unders. His 4-6-0 over/under record shows consistent underperformance against market expectations during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Von Achane Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on De'Von Achane's rushing yards props. The 14.6% under ROI and 1.1-yard negative differential create mathematical value, particularly when Miami projects to trail or faces strong run defenses that limit his volume.
What's De'Von Achane's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
De'Von Achane has averaged 55.0 rushing yards over his last 10 games, running 1.1 yards below the average line of 56.1. This negative differential indicates books are pricing his props above recent production levels.
How reliable is this trend?
Target De'Von Achane under props when Miami faces quality run defenses or projects to trail early in games. His rushing volume decreases significantly in negative game scripts when the Dolphins abandon the ground game.