Desmond Ridder's passing touchdown props present a neutral betting landscape with a 50% over rate across his last 10 games. His 0.8 touchdown average falls 0.2 touchdowns short of the typical 1.0 line, creating consistent value on the under. The Raiders quarterback's limited upside makes this a lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Ridder's touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating within a constrained offensive system that prioritizes ball security over explosive plays. His 0.8 touchdown average against a 1.0 line represents a meaningful 20% deficit that reflects his role as a game manager rather than a playmaker. The even 5-5 over-under split masks the underlying trend where Ridder consistently falls short of market expectations by exactly one touchdown per five games. This pattern suggests oddsmakers may be overvaluing his touchdown ceiling based on positional expectations rather than his actual usage patterns. The lack of extended streaks in either direction indicates consistent performance within a narrow range, making this prop more predictable than volatile. Ridder's touchdown production appears capped by conservative play-calling and limited red zone opportunities, factors that tend to persist throughout a season. The -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects the juice impact on a prop that's essentially a coin flip, but the consistent underperformance relative to the line creates a slight mathematical edge for under bettors willing to accept modest returns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ridder's consistent underperformance against the standard 1.0 touchdown line creates a mathematical edge despite the even record. His role as a conservative game manager limits explosive upside, making the under the superior long-term play. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, avoiding games where the line drops to 0.5 touchdowns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Desmond Ridder's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Ridder went 5-5 over-under on passing touchdown props in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He averaged 0.8 touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.0, creating a -0.2 differential that favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Desmond Ridder Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean under on Ridder's passing touchdown props. His 0.8 average consistently falls short of standard 1.0 lines, and his conservative playing style limits upside. The mathematical edge favors the under despite the even record.
What's Desmond Ridder's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Ridder averaged 0.8 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, falling 0.2 touchdowns short of the typical 1.0 line. This 20% deficit reflects his role as a game manager rather than a high-volume scorer.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ridder touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly in games where the Raiders are expected to control tempo. Avoid betting when lines drop to 0.5 touchdowns, as the value disappears.