Derrick Henry's rushing yards props show a clear over bias with a 55.6% hit rate (20-16 record) and +16.4 yard differential above the line. The veteran back consistently outperforms modest bookmaker expectations, generating +6.1% ROI on overs. This represents a sustainable edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic undervaluation of Henry's rushing production by oddsmakers. His 93.28 yard average against a 76.86 line creates a massive 16.4 yard cushion that speaks to both his consistency and the market's conservative approach to aging running backs. This isn't random variance—it's a pattern rooted in Henry's unique skill set and Baltimore's commitment to establishing the run. The 55.6% over rate across 36 games demonstrates remarkable persistence, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Henry's continued effectiveness in his age-30 season. The +6.1% ROI on overs indicates genuine value, not just a hot streak. Henry's physical running style and Baltimore's offensive philosophy create conditions where he regularly exceeds conservative projections. The fact that his longest over streak reached six games while under streaks maxed at three games reinforces the upward bias. However, the -15.2% under ROI serves as a warning—when Henry fails to hit, he often falls well short, likely due to game script or injury concerns that aren't always apparent pre-game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 16.4 yard differential and 55.6% hit rate create a clear mathematical edge that outweighs the risks. Henry's production remains remarkably consistent despite his age, and Baltimore's run-heavy approach provides the volume needed. The main risk is negative game script in blowout losses, but the sample size suggests this trend has staying power worth backing selectively.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 96.5 | 84.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 99.5 | 186.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 93.5 | 138.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 91.5 | 147.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 85.5 | 162.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 104.5 | 67.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 85.5 | 82.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 85.5 | 140.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 86.5 | 65.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 89.5 | 68.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 90.5 | 106.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 92.5 | 73.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 86.5 | 169.0 | +82.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 88.5 | 132.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 83.5 | 92.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Henry's rushing yards props show a 20-16 over/under record (55.6% overs) across 36 games from September 2023 to January 2025, with overs generating +6.1% ROI while unders lose -15.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the over on Henry's rushing yards. The 16.4 yard differential above the line and 55.6% hit rate create a clear mathematical edge that has persisted across 36 games, making overs the profitable long-term play.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards all games?
Henry averages 93.28 rushing yards per game against an average line of 76.86 yards, creating a substantial +16.4 yard differential that demonstrates consistent outperformance of oddsmaker expectations across the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry rushing yards overs when Baltimore is favored or in close games where they'll lean on their ground attack. Avoid in potential blowout losses where negative game script could limit his touches and effectiveness.