Derrick Henry's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 10.0 yards against a typical 4.1 line. The massive +5.9 differential suggests books are overvaluing his pass-catching upside. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture: Derrick Henry remains primarily a ground-and-pound back despite Baltimore's offensive evolution. His 10.0-yard average significantly exceeds the standard 4.1 receiving line, but the 40% over rate reveals a crucial disconnect between production and betting expectations. Henry's role in the Ravens' offense prioritizes between-the-tackles carries over pass-catching duties, particularly in favorable game scripts where Baltimore controls tempo. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates books are consistently overpricing his aerial contributions, likely influenced by his increased usage in a more dynamic Ravens system compared to his Tennessee days. However, the current two-game under streak and substantial differential suggest potential line corrections ahead. Henry's receiving props appear most vulnerable when Baltimore faces trailing game scripts or pass-heavy matchups, but his baseline role remains anchored to rushing production. The persistence of this trend through 10 games indicates a systematic undervaluation of his limited pass-catching role rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with books consistently setting lines 5.9 yards below Henry's average creates exploitable value. Target unders when Baltimore is favored or facing run-funnel defenses that force predictable game scripts. Primary risk lies in potential line corrections as books adjust to this obvious trend, making early-week betting crucial.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 27.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 29.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 27.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 13.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Henry has gone 4-6 over/under on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. Despite averaging 10.0 receiving yards per game, under bets have generated a positive 14.6% ROI while overs lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Henry's receiving yards props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on under bets indicate consistent value, as books appear to overestimate his pass-catching role in Baltimore's ground-heavy offensive system.
What's Derrick Henry's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Henry averages 10.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games against typical lines around 4.1 yards, creating a massive +5.9 differential. However, this production translates to just 40% of props going over, revealing inefficient line-setting by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry receiving yards unders early in the week before potential line corrections and when Baltimore is favored by 3+ points. Avoid betting when the Ravens face significant deficits or high-powered passing offenses that could force trailing game scripts.