Derrick Henry's receiving yards overs have been a goldmine at home, hitting 64.3% of the time with a 9-5-0 record over 14 games. The 5.9-yard average differential above the line generates a robust 22.7% ROI. This represents a strong lean over in home environments.
Expert Analysis
Henry's home receiving success stems from Baltimore's evolved offensive philosophy that maximizes his dual-threat capability in familiar surroundings. The 14.07 average versus 8.21 line reveals consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who still view Henry primarily as a ground-and-pound back. At home, the Ravens deploy more creative formations and check-down patterns that naturally inflate Henry's receiving opportunities. The 5.9-yard differential isn't marginal variance—it's systematic exploitation of a market inefficiency. Baltimore's offensive coordinator clearly trusts Henry more in the passing game at M&T Bank Stadium, where crowd noise forces opponents into predictable defensive alignments that create favorable matchups for Henry in space. The 22.7% ROI over demonstrates this isn't random luck but sustainable edge. However, the recent one-game under streak and Henry's advancing age present regression risks. The sample size of 14 games provides solid statistical foundation, but game script dependency remains the primary concern. Blowout wins could limit Henry's receiving work, while negative game scripts historically boost his targets as a safety valve.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henry's home receiving props offer legitimate value with the 5.9-yard cushion above market lines consistently materializing. The 64.3% hit rate over 14 games demonstrates sustainable edge rather than variance. Target overs when Baltimore faces competitive opponents likely to keep games close, maximizing Henry's receiving opportunities throughout four quarters. Primary risk remains blowout scenarios limiting his pass-catching volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 27.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 29.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 27.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 15.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Henry's receiving yards props at home show a 9-5-0 record (64.3% overs) across 14 games from September 2023 to January 2025, generating a 22.7% ROI on over bets with consistent value above market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Receiving Yards home games?
Lean over on Henry's home receiving yards props. The 5.9-yard average differential above the line and 64.3% hit rate demonstrate legitimate market inefficiency. Target competitive games where Baltimore won't abandon the passing attack early.
What's Derrick Henry's average Receiving Yards home games?
Henry averages 14.07 receiving yards in home games compared to typical lines around 8.21 yards. This 5.9-yard differential represents significant value, as oddsmakers consistently underestimate his pass-catching role in Baltimore's home offensive schemes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry's receiving overs in competitive home games where Baltimore faces quality opponents. Avoid potential blowouts where the Ravens might abandon passing early. His home splits show the strongest edge in close contests.