Derek Carr's passing yards props at home present a dead-even proposition with a 6-6 over/under record and minimal edge either direction. The Saints quarterback averages 223.9 yards against 229.6 lines, creating a slight under bias. With negative ROI on both sides, this trend suggests avoiding action.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's home passing yards performance reveals a quarterback operating in a system that consistently generates modest production regardless of game script. The 223.9-yard average against 229.6 lines indicates oddsmakers may be overvaluing his home environment by roughly 6 yards per game. This differential stems from New Orleans' balanced offensive approach under Dennis Allen, where the Saints lean heavily on their rushing attack and short passing concepts that limit Carr's ceiling. The 50% over rate with negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing that eliminates exploitable edges. Carr's home performances lack the volatility that creates betting value, as he rarely exceeds 275 yards or falls below 180 yards in the Superdome. The Saints' methodical pace and conservative game management philosophy contribute to this consistency, making Carr more of a game manager than a volume passer at home. Without significant injury concerns to skill position players or dramatic shifts in game script tendencies, this trend appears sustainable. The absence of meaningful splits data reinforces that external factors have minimal impact on Carr's home production, suggesting his passing output is more system-dependent than matchup-driven.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 6-6 record combined with negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing that eliminates profitable opportunities. While the slight under bias from his 5.7-yard deficit to the average line exists, it's insufficient to overcome typical betting margins. Target games only when lines exceed 240 yards or drop below 215 yards for potential value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 224.5 | 184.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 214.5 | 248.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 206.5 | 269.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 240.5 | 142.0 | -98.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 224.5 | 200.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 240.5 | 264.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 213.5 | 218.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 224.5 | 119.0 | -105.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 231.5 | 226.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 250.5 | 211.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 239.5 | 301.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 244.5 | 305.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing Yards prop record home games?
Derek Carr has gone 6-6 on passing yards overs in home games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 223.9 yards. His props typically close around 229.6 yards, creating a consistent 5.7-yard deficit to the betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing Yards home games?
Neither side offers value as both overs and unders show -4.5% ROI. The market appears efficiently priced. Only consider betting when lines deviate significantly from his 224-yard home average, favoring unders on inflated numbers above 240.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing Yards home games?
Carr averages 223.9 passing yards in home games compared to typical closing lines of 229.6 yards. This 5.7-yard differential suggests oddsmakers consistently overvalue his home performance by nearly a full completion.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Carr's passing yards props at home due to efficient pricing. If forced to bet, target games with lines above 235 yards for under value or below 215 yards for over consideration, though such opportunities are rare.