Derek Carr has hit the over on passing touchdowns in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate), averaging 1.9 TDs against a typical 1.5 line for a +0.4 differential. The over has generated a strong +14.6% ROI, making it the clear value play despite a current 2-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's passing touchdown production has been remarkably consistent above market expectations, with his 1.9 average representing a meaningful 27% edge over the standard 1.5 line. This isn't just variance - it reflects the Saints' red zone efficiency and Carr's improved chemistry with his receiving corps throughout the season. The +14.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that consistently undervalues his touchdown upside, likely anchored to his conservative reputation from previous seasons. While the current 2-game under streak might concern casual bettors, it actually represents the longest cold stretch in this sample, with his previous hot streak reaching 3 consecutive overs. The 60% hit rate on a stat this binary suggests genuine skill rather than luck, particularly given touchdown passes require precision timing and red zone execution. Books appear slow to adjust, creating persistent value on the over. The risk lies in potential regression to career norms and the Saints' occasional game script issues, but Carr's red zone target distribution has remained stable. His ability to find the end zone through the air has been one of New Orleans' most reliable offensive constants, making the over the mathematically superior long-term play despite short-term variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and +14.6% ROI create clear mathematical value, while Carr's 1.9 average significantly exceeds typical 1.5 lines. The current 2-game under streak actually presents better entry value as books haven't adjusted upward. Target games where the Saints project for higher scoring environments or face weaker red zone defenses for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Derek Carr has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. His over bets have generated a +14.6% ROI while under bets lost -23.6%, showing clear directional edge toward overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet over on Derek Carr's passing touchdowns. The 60% hit rate and +14.6% ROI create mathematical value, while his 1.9 average consistently beats typical 1.5 lines. The current 2-game under streak actually improves entry value.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Derek Carr has averaged 1.9 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.5 line, creating a +0.4 differential. This 27% edge above market expectations has driven consistent over value and strong ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derek Carr touchdown overs in projected higher-scoring games or against weaker red zone defenses. The Saints' red zone efficiency has been consistent, making any game with 45+ total or facing bottom-10 red zone defenses ideal spots.