Derek Carr's passing touchdown prop at home presents a clear edge, hitting over 1.5 touchdowns in 58.3% of games with a +0.4 average differential. The 11.4% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent value, making this a lean over opportunity in favorable home conditions.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's home touchdown production reveals a quarterback who consistently exceeds modest expectations in familiar surroundings. The 1.92 average against a typical 1.5 line represents meaningful separation, not random variance. This differential stems from the Saints' offensive philosophy at the Superdome, where they've historically leaned on shorter, high-percentage passing concepts in the red zone rather than ground-and-pound approaches. Carr's accuracy on intermediate routes translates well to scoring opportunities, particularly when working with reliable targets in structured sets. The 58.3% over rate across 12 games suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home efficiency, creating persistent line value. However, the recent under streak indicates potential regression, and Carr's conservative nature can limit ceiling games. The lack of explosive arm talent means he relies heavily on volume and red zone opportunities rather than big-play touchdowns. Weather conditions and game script remain crucial variables, as negative game flow can quickly derail touchdown upside. The Saints' inconsistent running game actually helps Carr's case, forcing more red zone passing attempts when traditional ground attacks stall.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.4% ROI and consistent +0.4 differential above the line create legitimate value, especially when the Saints are favored and expected to control game flow. Target spots where New Orleans projects for multiple red zone trips against weaker defenses. Main risk is Carr's conservative tendencies limiting ceiling outcomes in tight games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Derek Carr has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of 12 home games (58.3%), averaging 1.92 touchdowns per game. This produces a solid +0.4 differential above the typical line with an 11.4% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing TDs home games?
Lean over on Derek Carr's passing touchdowns at home. The 58.3% hit rate and +0.4 average differential create legitimate value, especially when the Saints are favored and expected to control offensive possessions throughout the game.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing TDs home games?
Derek Carr averages 1.92 passing touchdowns in home games, which is 0.4 above the standard 1.5 line. This consistent outperformance across 12 games suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home efficiency in red zone situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derek Carr touchdown overs when the Saints are home favorites against weaker defenses. Look for games with higher totals where multiple red zone trips are expected, avoiding weather concerns or negative game script situations.