Derek Carr's passing touchdown prop in conference games presents a perfectly balanced dead heat with a 50.0% over rate (9-9-0) across 18 games. Despite averaging 1.61 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line, both sides carry identical -4.5% ROI, making this a clear pass in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's conference game touchdown production reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency. While his 1.61 average suggests slight value on overs against the standard 1.5 line, the perfectly split 9-9-0 record tells a different story. The Saints quarterback has shown remarkable consistency within conference play, but that consistency works against bettors rather than for them. The +0.1 differential between his average and the typical line appears meaningful, yet the identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has priced this prop with surgical precision. Carr's current two-game under streak follows his longest over streak of seven games, highlighting the volatile nature of touchdown variance even when underlying metrics remain stable. The absence of meaningful splits data suggests his conference performance lacks exploitable patterns based on home/road, opponent strength, or game script. This uniformity, combined with the Saints' evolving offensive identity under different coordinators, creates a prop where neither fundamental analysis nor situational edges provide clear directional bias. The market's efficiency here is particularly notable given Carr's reputation for steady, if unspectacular, production.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. The perfectly balanced 9-9-0 record and identical -4.5% ROI on both sides screams market efficiency. While Carr's 1.61 average beats the typical 1.5 line, the lack of exploitable edges and current two-game under streak suggest waiting for better spots. This prop exemplifies when statistical noise overwhelms any perceived edge, making it a clear avoid regardless of weekly line movement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Derek Carr has gone 9-9-0 on passing touchdown props in conference games, hitting exactly 50.0% overs across 18 games since joining New Orleans. His average of 1.61 touchdowns slightly exceeds typical 1.5 lines but hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing TDs conference games?
Neither over nor under offers betting value on Derek Carr's passing touchdown props in conference games. The perfectly balanced 9-9-0 record and identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate exceptional market efficiency that eliminates profitable angles.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing TDs conference games?
Derek Carr averages 1.61 passing touchdowns in conference games, which is 0.1 above the typical 1.5 line. However, this slight statistical edge hasn't produced betting profits, with both overs and unders posting identical -4.5% returns over 18 games.
How reliable is this trend?
There is no optimal time to bet Derek Carr's passing touchdown props in conference games based on available data. The lack of exploitable splits and perfectly balanced historical results suggest avoiding this prop entirely regardless of weekly circumstances or line movement.