Derek Carr's passing touchdown props away from home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% of overs across 12 road games. His 1.25 average sits 0.2 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line, generating an 11.4% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Carr's touchdown props in road environments.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's road struggles with passing touchdowns reflect the broader challenges quarterbacks face in hostile environments, but his numbers reveal a more systematic issue. The 1.25 average against a 1.5 line creates consistent value on unders, particularly given how touchdown variance typically inflates road totals. Carr's Saints offense has shown marked differences between home and away performances, with road games featuring more conservative game plans and fewer red zone opportunities. The -20.4% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues Carr's touchdown potential in away games, likely influenced by his overall season averages rather than situational splits. This trend appears sustainable given the Saints' offensive line struggles on the road and Carr's tendency toward safer, shorter throws in unfamiliar stadiums. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and regression toward his road mean of 1.25 touchdowns makes unders mathematically favorable. Road environments consistently challenge quarterbacks' timing and rhythm, factors that directly impact red zone efficiency where touchdowns are scored.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carr's 1.25 road average creates consistent mathematical value against the standard 1.5 line, supported by an impressive 11.4% ROI on unders. The Saints' conservative road approach and Carr's documented struggles in hostile environments make this a high-conviction play. Target games against strong defenses or in particularly loud stadiums for maximum edge. The primary risk is a potential blowout scenario forcing garbage time touchdowns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing TDs prop record away games?
Derek Carr has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 7 of 12 away games (58.3% under rate), posting a 5-7-0 over/under record. His road performances consistently fall short of market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing TDs away games?
Bet under on Derek Carr's passing touchdowns in away games. His 1.25 road average creates value against the typical 1.5 line, with unders generating an 11.4% ROI compared to -20.4% on overs.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing TDs away games?
Derek Carr averages 1.25 passing touchdowns in away games, sitting 0.2 touchdowns below the standard 1.5 line. This differential creates consistent mathematical value for under bettors across his road sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derek Carr touchdown unders in road games against strong defenses or in particularly hostile environments. Prime spots include division rivals' stadiums and playoff-atmosphere games where conservative game planning becomes more likely.